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Si us plau utilitzeu sempre aquest identificador per citar o enllaçar aquest document: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/65700
Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time
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Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.
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CARABOTTA, Laura, CLAEYS, Peter. Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time. _UB Economics – Working Papers_. 2015. Vol. E15/320. [consulta: 28 de gener de 2026]. ISSN: 1136-8365. [Disponible a: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/65700]