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E15-320_Carabotta-Claeys.pdf (1.43 MB)

Document type

Working paper

Publication date

2015

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cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Carabotta et al., 2015
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/65700

Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

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Abstract

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Subject

Macroeconomia, Dèficit públic, Previsió econòmica, Cicles econòmics

Subject (English)

Macroeconomics, Budget deficits, Economic forecasting, Business cycles

Citation

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UB Economics – Working Papers [ERE]
Documents de treball / Informes (Economia)

Citation

CARABOTTA, Laura and CLAEYS, Peter. Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time. UB Economics – Working Papers. 2015. Vol.  E15/320. ISSN 1136-8365. [consulted: 10 of August of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/65700

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