Smokescreen: The Long-Term impact on forest fires carbon sequestration in Europe

Abstract

Greenhouse gas emissions from wildfires are substantial, and yet were given very little scrutiny in the Kyoto Protocol until very recently. The main reason for this was the assumption that forests would naturally recover fully over time, an assumption now largely challenged by on-site carbon sequestration studies. In this MSc, I produce the first large scale assessment of long-term forest recovery from wildfires, contributing to a better understanding of the environmental damages from forest fires and their economic valuation. Utilizing a matching strategy for fires of 2000, I find that after 18 years, on average, fire-damage has caused 61 % reduction in the presence of forests and at least a 26% average reduction of carbon stored. The costs of compensation for this loss alone rise to estimates over $5.9 billion, while not doing so impedes the effectiveness of climate change policy. With more accurate data soon-to-be released to public, these estimates are likely be even larger.