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Si us plau utilitzeu sempre aquest identificador per citar o enllaçar aquest document: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/123971
Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions
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Societal exposure to large fires has been increasing in recent years. Estimating the expected fire activity a few months in advance would allow reducing environmental and socio-economic impacts through short-term adaptation and response to climate variability and change. However, seasonal prediction of climate-driven fires is still in its infancy. Here, we discuss a strategy for seasonally forecasting burned area anomalies linking seasonal climate predictions with parsimonious empirical climate-fire models using the standardized precipitation index as the climate predictor for burned area. Assuming near-perfect climate predictions, we obtained skilful predictions of fire activity over a substantial portion of the global burnable area (~60%). Using currently available operational seasonal climate predictions, the skill of fire seasonal forecasts remains high and significant in a large fraction of the burnable area (~40%). These findings reveal an untapped and useful burned area predictive ability using seasonal climate forecasts, which can play a crucial role in fire management strategies and minimise the impact of adverse climate conditions.
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TURCO, Marco, JEREZ, Sonia, DOBLAS-REYES, Francisco javier, AGHAKOUCHAK, Amir, LLASAT BOTIJA, María del carmen, PROVENZALE, A. (antonello). Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions. _Nature Communications_. 2018. Vol. 9: 2718. [consulta: 12 de abril de 2026]. ISSN: 2041-1723. [Disponible a: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/123971]