HIV Incidence and Spatial Clustering in a Rural Area of Southern Mozambique

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Monitoring the HIV epidemic in a defined population is critical for planning treatment and preventive strategies. This is especially important in sub-Saharan Africa, which harbours the highest burden of the disease. OBJECTIVE: To estimate HIV incidence in adults aged 18-47 years old and to investigate spatial variations of HIV prevalence in Manhica, a semi-rural area of southern Mozambique. METHODS: Two cross-sectional community-based surveys were conducted in 2010 and 2012 to determine HIV prevalence. Individual participants were randomly selected from the demographic surveillance system in place in the area and voluntary HIV counselling and testing was offered at the household level. HIV incidence was calculated using prevalence estimates from the two sero-surveys. Each participant's household was geocoded using a global information system. The Spatial Scan Statistics programme was used to identify areas with disproportionate excess in HIV prevalence. RESULTS: A total of 1511 adults were tested. The estimated HIV prevalence in the community was 39.9% in 2010 and 39.7% in 2012. The overall HIV incidence was 3.6 new infections per 100 person-years at risk (PYAR) [95CI 1.56; 7.88], assuming stable epidemic conditions, and tended to be higher in women (4.9/100 PYAR [95CI 1.74; 11.85]) than in men (3.2/PYAR [95CI 1.36; 9.92]). One cluster with significant excess HIV prevalence was identified at the same geographic location in both surveys. This cluster had an HIV prevalence of 79.0% in 2010 and 52.3% in 2012. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of these first individually-randomised community-HIV sero-surveys conducted in Mozambique reinforce the need to combine HIV incidence estimates and research on micro geographical infection patterns to guide and consolidate effective prevention strategies.