Estudio de la variabilidad del recurso solar en la Ciudad de México (2004–2024)

Abstract

Solar radiation is a key resource for the energy transition and for understanding climate processes, especially in complex urban environments. This study analyzes the temporal variability of solar resources in Mexico City using an extensive time series (2004–2024) of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), obtained from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) for a representative location in this city. The series was verified for temporal consistency and configured in local time to properly interpret daily cycles. The analysis was developed using descriptive statistics and aggregations at different scales, such as the description of the complete time series, monthly averages of global horizontal irradiance in representative time slots (10:00 a.m., 12:00, and 14:00) with multi-year average, interannual standard deviation and extremes, daily climatology of the “average year” to identify the typical interannual pattern, comparison between the beginning and end of the series (2004 vs. 2024), and estimation of irradiation (kWh/m²) by temporal integration of irradiance. The results show marked seasonality, with higher levels in spring and peaks around midday, as well as moderate interannual variability. Monthly irradiation reaches its maximum in May with an average of 215.34 kWh/m² and its minimum in December with 154.7 kWh/m². Likewise, total annual irradiation is concentrated within a limited range between years, highlighting the potential influence of atmospheric conditions on energy availability. Overall, the study provides a robust characterization of solar resources in an urban location in Mexico City, useful as a basis for energy, climate, and urban planning assessments