The effect of Brexit on migration flows towards Italy and Spain

Abstract

The present paper aims to investigate if Brexit generated a return of migration from UK towards Italy and Spain. I collect data on immigration from OECD countries to Italian and Spanish provinces from 2006 to 2016. I present three migration models that include monadic and dyadic fixed effects, which enables to control various expression of multilateral resistance to migration. I merge migration data with various key factors: average wage, GDP per capita, unemployment rate, health spending and education level. To study the impact of Brexit on migration, I create a dummy variable for migrants leaving UK in 2016. Results suggest that in 2016 migration flows from UK to Italy and Spain increased of about 29% and 15% respectively, probably as a consequence of the Brexit referendum.