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2025-11-21

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cc-by-nc-nd (c) Guzzon, C. et al., 2025
Si us plau utilitzeu sempre aquest identificador per citar o enllaçar aquest document: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/228179

Improving Extreme Precipitation Forecasts in Catalonia (Spain) Using Analog Methods: A Comparison with the GFS Model

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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100839

Resum

Flood forecasting in the Mediterranean region remains particularly challenging due to the localized and convectivenature of extreme precipitation events. This study evaluates the potential of analog-based methods (AMs)to enhance 24-hour precipitation forecasts for Catalonia (northeastern Iberian Peninsula), with the broaderobjective of supporting flood risk management and early warning systems. The tested AMs use geopotentialheight fields at 500 and 1000 hPa as predictors and differ in complexity, combining Weather-Type classification(WT), Seasonal Standardization (S), and the Perfect Prognosis (PP) framework, a novel configuration in analogbasedforecasting. Model performance was assessed against operational Global Forecast System (GFS) forecastsusing fifth-generation ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA5) as reference, for both moderate and extreme precipitationevents associated with historical floods. Results show that AMs integrating Seasonal Standardization and thePerfect Prognosis framework markedly improve 24-hour precipitation forecasts relative to GFS, particularly inreproducing the intensity and spatial distribution of extreme events. These findings highlight the operationalpotential of enhanced AMs as efficient, data-driven complements to numerical weather prediction models,offering improved skill for flash-flood forecasting and impact-based risk management.

Matèries

Precipitacions (Meteorologia), Inundacions, Previsió del temps, Catalunya

Matèries (anglès)

Precipitations (Meteorology), Floods, Weather forecasting, Catalonia

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GUZZON, Carlo, MARCOS MATAMOROS, Raül, LLASAT BOTIJA, María del carmen, LLASAT-BOTIJA, Montserrat. Improving Extreme Precipitation Forecasts in Catalonia (Spain) Using Analog Methods: A Comparison with the GFS Model. _Weather and Climate Extremes_. 2025. Vol. 50. [consulta: 4 de maig de 2026]. [Disponible a: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/228179]

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