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2025-11

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cc-by (c) Andrés Sánchez, Jorge de et al., 2025
Si us plau utilitzeu sempre aquest identificador per citar o enllaçar aquest document: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/229162

Understanding Reverse Mortgage Acceptance in Spain with Explainable Machine Learning and Importance–Performance Map Analysis

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Recurs relacionat

https://doi.org/10.3390/risks13110212

Resum

In developed countries such as Spain, where the population is increasingly aging, retirement planning and longevity risk represent major societal challenges. In Spain, in particular, a significant proportion of household wealth is concentrated in real estate, primarily in the form of owner-occupied housing. For this reason, one emerging financial product in the retirement savings space is the reverse mortgage (RM). This study examines the determinants of acceptance of this financial product using survey data collected from Spanish individuals. The intention to take out an RM is explained through performance expectancy (PE), effort expectancy (EE), social influence (SI), bequest motive (BM), financial literacy (FL), and risk (RK). The analysis applies machine learning techniques: decision tree regression is used to visualize variable interactions that lead to acceptance; random forest to improve predictive capability; and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) to estimate the relative importance of predictors. Finally, Importance–Performance Map Analysis (IPMA) is employed to identify the variables that merit greater attention in the acceptance of RMs. SHAP values indicate that PE and SI are the most influential predictors of intention to use RMs, followed by BM and EE with moderate importance, whereas the positive influence of RK and FL is more reduced. The IPMA highlights PE and SI as the most strategic drivers, and RK and BM act as relevant barriers to the widespread adoption of RMs.

Matèries

Longevitat, Hipoteques inverses

Matèries (anglès)

Longevity, Reverse mortgage loans

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Articles publicats en revistes (Matemàtica Econòmica, Financera i Actuarial)

Citació

ANDRÉS SÁNCHEZ, Jorge de and GONZÁLEZ-VILA PUCHADES, Laura. Understanding Reverse Mortgage Acceptance in Spain with Explainable Machine Learning and Importance–Performance Map Analysis. Risks. 2025. Vol. 13, num. 11. ISSN 2227-9091. [consulted: 22 of May of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/229162

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