Rethinking Africa's GDP, 1796-1950

Abstract

Has Africa always been poor? This thesis attempts to answer this question, presenting estimates of incomes in Africa from 1796 onwards. I build upon the work of Prados de la Escosura, who exploited the relationship between GDP per capita and income terms of trade to create African GDP estimates from 1870 to 1950. I produce new estimates, which are both of a higher quality and more extensive. My regional estimates go back as far as 1796 and the majority of my country estimates go back to 1830. Outside of South Africa, this is the first insight into the incomes in sub-Saharan Africa during this period. I find two interesting results. The first, that there was an economic boom in West and East Africa immediately prior to the scramble for Africa. The second, more surprising result, is that GDP per capita levels rise prior to 1840. I demonstrate how this contradicts previous literature and highlight how both of these booms were triggered primarily by the many structural changes which occurred during and shortly after the transatlantic slave trade. Finally, I make comparisons of my GDP estimates with the available estimates supporting the validity of my results.