Evaluación del impacto de fenómenos climáticos extremos en los precios de mercado eléctrico guatemalteco

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of extreme climatic events, specifically the most intense episodes of El Niño and La Niña, the two opposing phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, on the behavior of the Guatemalan electricity market. Due to its high reliance on hydropower resources and its geographic location, Guatemala is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, a reality reflected in the sensitivity of its power system to extreme weather events. Through a quantitative and seasonal approach, this work evaluates the relationship between the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and key climate variables (precipitation and temperature) in strategic hydroelectric generation zones, as well as their impact on electricity generation, the opportunity price of energy (POE), and the share of thermal technologies. The results show that during El Niño events (warm phase), reduced rainfall during the rainy season leads to a significant drop in hydroelectric generation. This reduction is offset by increased thermal generation, especially from bunker fuel and coal, which drives market prices upward. In contrast, during La Niña events (cold phase), an increase in hydroelectric output was observed, allowing for reduced dependence on fossil fuels and greater price stability. This dynamic reveals an inverse relationship between water availability and the POE, particularly during peak demand hoursThe study also found that the POE is sensitive to variables such as international bunker prices, national electricity demand, and total thermal generation, highlighting the system’s exposure to external factors. Despite Guatemala’s high renewable energy potential, the limited diversification of its energy mix and the dependency on imported fossil fuels exacerbate the structural vulnerability of the electricity sector. In this context, the study concludes that promoting an energy transition aimed at strengthening system resilience is essential, through the integration of non-conventional renewable sources, energy storage technologies, and sustainable energy planing