Hepatitis C prevalence in Denmark in 2016-An updated estimate using multiple national registers

Abstract

Background: Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) can be eliminated as a public health threat by meeting the WHO targets: 90% of patients diagnosed and 80% treated by 2030. To achieve and monitor progress towards elimination, an updated estimate of the size of the CHC population is needed, but Denmark has no complete national CHC register. By combining existing registers in 2007, we estimated the population living with CHC to be 16,888 (0.38% of the adult population).

Aim: To estimate the population living with diagnosed and undiagnosed CHC in Denmark on 31 December 2016. Among additional aims were to estimate the proportion of patients attending specialised clinical care.

Methods: People with diagnosed CHC were identified from four national registers. The total diagnosed population was estimated by capture-recapture analysis. The undiagnosed population was estimated by comparing the register data with data from two cross-sectional surveys.

Results: The population living with diagnosed CHC in Denmark was 7,581 persons (95%CI: 7,416-12,661) of which 6,116 (81%) were identified in the four registers. The estimated undiagnosed fraction was 24%, so the total CHC infected population was 9,975 corresponding to 0.21% of the adult population (95%CI: 9,758-16,659; 0.21%-0.36%). Only 48% of diagnosed patients had received specialised clinical care.

Conclusion: CHC prevalence in Denmark is declining and 76% of patients have been diagnosed. Linking diagnosed patients to care and increasing efforts to test people with former or current drug use will be necessary to achieve CHC elimination.