When are we having the second? Effects of paternity leave extensions on the decision to have a second child

Abstract

In a context of low fertility rates in developed countries, some governments are adoptin family policies in an attempt to encourage childbearing. I exploit a set of three paternity leave extensions in Spain from 2017 to 2019 to analyze whether this kind of policy affects second order fertility decisions. For that purpose, I use a rich administrative dataset of birth statistics provided by the Spanish National Statistical Institute and employ a regression discontinuity difference-in-differences approach. I compare the trends in birth spacing between the first two children of women who had their first infant near each reform, to those who had them during the same period in non-reform years. In line with some previous literature, the results do not show any generalized response of mothers in the time they take to have their second child, which suggests that Spain may have entered a new phase in which policies that break gender norms do not have, at least, a negative impact on fertility. Moreover, the analysis of heterogeneous effects contributes in understanding possible mechanisms through which family policies could alter fertility decisions.