EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset 2.0

Abstract

Aims: This paper presents a H2020 project aimed at developing an advanced space weather forecasting tool, combining the MagnetoHydroDynamic (MHD) solar wind and coronal mass ejection (CME) evolution modelling with solar energetic particle (SEP) transport and acceleration model(s). The EUHFORIA 2.0 project will address the geoeffectiveness of impacts and mitigation to avoid (part of the) damage, including that of extreme events, related to solar eruptions, solar wind streams, and SEPs, with particular emphasis on its application to forecast geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and radiation on geospace. Methods: We will apply innovative methods and state-of-the-art numerical techniques to extend the recent heliospheric solar wind and CME propagation model EUHFORIA with two integrated key facilities that are crucial for improving its predictive power and reliability, namely (1) data-driven flux-rope CME models, and (2) physics-based, self-consistent SEP models for the acceleration and transport of particles along and across the magnetic field lines. This involves the novel coupling of advanced space weather models. In addition, after validating the upgraded EUHFORIA/SEP model, it will be coupled to existing models for GICs and atmospheric radiation transport models. This will result in a reliable prediction tool for radiation hazards from SEP events, affecting astronauts, passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft, and the impact of space weather events on power grid infrastructure, telecommunication, and navigation satellites. Finally, this innovative tool will be integrated into both the Virtual Space Weather Modeling Centre (VSWMC, ESA) and the space weather forecasting procedures at the ESA SSCC in Ukkel (Belgium), so that it will be available to the space weather community and effectively used for improved predictions and forecasts of the evolution of CME magnetic structures and their impact on Earth. Results: The results of the first six months of the EU H2020 project are presented here. These concern alternative coronal models, the application of adaptive mesh refinement techniques in the heliospheric part of EUHFORIA, alternative flux-rope CME models, evaluation of data-assimilation based on Karman filtering for the solar wind modelling, and a feasibility study of the integration of SEP models.