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A dynamical model describing stock market price distributions

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High-frequency data in finance have led to a deeper understanding on probability distributions of market prices. Several facts seem to be well established by empirical evidence. Specifically, probability distributions have the following properties: (i) They are not Gaussian and their center is well adjusted by Lévy distributions. (ii) They are long-tailed but have finite moments of any order. (iii) They are self-similar on many time scales. Finally, (iv) at small time scales, price volatility follows a non-diffusive behavior. We extend Merton's ideas on speculative price formation and present a dynamical model resulting in a characteristic function that explains in a natural way all of the above features. The knowledge of such a distribution opens a new and useful way of quantifying financial risk. The results of the model agree - with high degree of accuracy - with empirical data taken from historical records of the Standard & Poor's 500 cash index.

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MASOLIVER, Jaume, MONTERO TORRALBO, Miquel, PORRÀ I ROVIRA, Josep maria. A dynamical model describing stock market price distributions. _Physica A_. 2000. Vol. 283, núm. 3-4, pàgs. 559-567. [consulta: 28 de gener de 2026]. ISSN: 0378-4371. [Disponible a: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/119287]

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