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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/69163
Mapping Physiological Suitability Limits for Malaria in Africa Under Climate Change
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Abstract
We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria
transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates
nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito
vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium
falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently
experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than
previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we
predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for
malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable
area. Combined with human population density projections, our
maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for
year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal
West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic
Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal
transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal
areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds
on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level
demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate
where resources may be best spent on malaria control.
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RYAN, Sadie J., et al. Mapping Physiological Suitability Limits for Malaria in Africa
Under Climate Change. Vector Borne and Zoonotic Diseases. 2015. Vol. 15, num. 12, pags. 718-725. ISSN 1530-3667. [consulted: 7 of August of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/69163