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2018-01-01

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cc-by-nc-nd (c) Elsevier B.V., 2018
Si us plau utilitzeu sempre aquest identificador per citar o enllaçar aquest document: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/120430

Use of bias correction techniques to improve seasonal forecasts for reservoirs - A case-study in northwestern Mediterranean

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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.010

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In this paper, we have compared different bias correction methodologies to assess whether they could be advantageous for improving the performance of a seasonal prediction model for volume anomalies in the Boadella reservoir (northwestern Mediterranean). The bias correction adjustments have been applied on precipitation and temperature from the European Centre for Middle-range Weather Forecasting System 4 (S4). We have used three bias correction strategies: two linear (mean bias correction, BC, and linear regression, LR) and one non-linear (Model Output Statistics analogs, MOS-analog). The results have been compared with climatology and persistence. The volume-anomaly model is a previously computed Multiple Linear Regression that ingests precipitation, temperature and in-flow anomaly data to simulate monthly volume anomalies. The potential utility for end-users has been assessed using economic value curve areas. We have studied the S4 hindcast period 1981-2010 for each month of the year and up to seven months ahead considering an ensemble of 15 members. We have shown that the MOS-analog and LR bias corrections can improve the original S4. The application to volume anomalies points towards the possibility to introduce bias correction methods as a tool to improve water resource seasonal forecasts in an end-user context of climate services. Particularly, the MOS-analog approach gives generally better results than the other approaches in late autumn and early winter.

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Previsió del temps, Pantans (Enginyeria civil), Mediterrània (Regió)

Matèries (anglès)

Weather forecasting, Reservoirs, Mediterranean Region

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MARCOS MATAMOROS, Raül, LLASAT BOTIJA, María del carmen, QUINTANA SEGUÍ, Pere, TURCO, Marco. Use of bias correction techniques to improve seasonal forecasts for reservoirs - A case-study in northwestern Mediterranean. _Science of the Total Environment_. 2018. Vol. 610-611, núm. 64-74. [consulta: 20 de gener de 2026]. ISSN: 0048-9697. [Disponible a: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/120430]

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