The Green Transition: Regional Vulnerability, Opportunity and Migration Evidence from a Nested Logit Model

Abstract

The green transition, the European Union’s policy strategy to create a greener and more inclusive economy, is gaining momentum. How this transition unfolds across regions and affects mobility lacks evidence. This thesis investigates whether and how the green transition influences interregional migration within the European Union. By using individual-level data from the 2023 MOBI-TWIN survey and two constructed regional indices, the Green Transition Opportunity Index (GTOI) and the Green Transition Vulnerability Index (GTVI), we examine regional inequalities, realised migration and migration aspirations. The implementation of individual environmental preferences in the analysis gives a new perspective on how individual characteristics affect migration decisions. The results from conditional and nested logit models show that green opportunities tend to attract migrants. The green vulnerabilities show rather mixed results. The alignment between green preferences and migration choices is less straightforward. Environmentally conscious individuals do not always relocate to greener regions, clearly highlighting a potential gap between environmental values and actual behaviour.