Fall and Rise of a Threatened Raptor: Unraveling Long-Term Population Dynamics with Spatially Explicit Integrated Models.

mature non-breeders), sink–source status, and dispersal processes. Using this approach, we carried out a fine-scale assessment of the long-term dynamics and demographic drivers of one long-lived Bonelli’s eagle population from Western Europe (1986–2020). Our results illustrated a considerable population decline and subsequent recovery alongside multiple demographic insights scarcely documented to date in long-lived species. First, we reported a decrease and subsequent increase in floater numbers probably associated with parallel changes in the breeding population, hence contributing to the scarce empirical knowledge available about the role and dynamics of floaters. Second, we detected a change in average population functioning from a sink to a neutral

contributor, thus shedding light on the flexibility and drivers of sink-source dynamics. Third, we underscored the central role of non-breeder survival for population recovery, suggesting that long-lived species conservation action should not only focus on adult or breeding populations, as is typically the case. Fourth, we quantified the magnitudes and variations of local and dispersal processes in the long term and discussed their potential implications in terms of management implementation. Overall, our study highlights the potential of spatially explicit IPMs to build more complete assessments of population dynamics, contribute to better-informed conservation action, and help fill knowledge gaps in ecological sciences.