Effect of ball screen and one-on-one on the level of opposition and effectiveness of shots in the ACB

Abstract

In light of the importance of shots on the final result in basketball matches, this research aims to reveal the predictive ability of variables associated with different game actions (ball screen, one-on-one near the basket and one-on-one far away from the basket), shot zone (near to or far from the basket) and players' position (outside or inside) of the success of shots and of the type of shot, defended or not defended, in three seasons (2014 to 2016) of the Copa del Rey in the ACB (Asociación de Clubes de Baloncesto) League in Spain. Observational methodology was used, and an ad hoc instrument was created using Lince software. The study was conducted on a total of 7695 game actions, of which an analysis of 877 shots was made using CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) classification trees. The results obtained in this research have led us to the following conclusions: (a) the most important variable in the success of shots is to find "open shots", regardless of the game action, (b) one-on-one actions outside and inside the zone have a clear connection to the finishes of the plays and end up in defended shots, (c) shots by ball screen lead to more open shots than in one-on-one and (d) play with passes may facilitate to find "open shots". These results can be of interest for coaches to prepare their teams in the best possible way, but they must be interpreted with caution as the sample was very specific (Copa del Rey in the ACB League) and, therefore, it is necessary to continue investigating this topic in other competition contexts.