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Nayagam_S_Clin_Infect_Dis_2020.pdf (345.54 KB)

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2020-04-07

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cc-by (c) Nayagam et al. , 2020
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/162677

Investment Case for a Comprehensive Package of Interventions Against Hepatitis B in China: Applied Modeling to Help National Strategy Planning.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa134

Abstract

BACKGROUND content: In 2016, the first global viral hepatitis elimination targets were endorsed. An estimated one-third of the world's population of individuals with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection live in China and liver cancer is the sixth leading cause of mortality, but coverage of first-line antiviral treatment was low. In 2015, China was one of the first countries to initiate a consultative process for a renewed approach to viral hepatitis. We present the investment case for the scale-up of a comprehensive package of HBV interventions. METHODS content: A dynamic simulation model of HBV was developed and used to simulate the Chinese HBV epidemic. We evaluated the impact, costs, and return on investment of a comprehensive package of prevention and treatment interventions from a societal perspective, incorporating costs of management of end-stage liver disease and lost productivity costs. RESULTS content: Despite the successes of historical vaccination scale-up since 1992, there will be a projected 60 million people still living with HBV in 2030 and 10 million HBV-related deaths, including 5.7 million HBV-related cancer deaths between 2015 and 2030. This could be reduced by 2.1 million by highly active case-finding and optimal antiviral treatment regimens. The package of interventions is likely to have a positive return on investment to society of US$1.57 per US dollar invested. CONCLUSIONS content: Increases in HBV-related deaths for the next few decades pose a major public health threat in China. Active case-finding and access to optimal antiviral treatment are required to mitigate this risk. This investment case approach provides a real-world example of how applied modeling can support national dialog and inform policy planning.

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Hepatitis B, Xina

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Hepatitis B, China

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Articles publicats en revistes (ISGlobal)

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NAYAGAM, Shevanthi, et al. Investment Case for a Comprehensive Package of Interventions
                Against Hepatitis B in China: Applied Modeling to Help National
                Strategy Planning. Clinical Infectious Diseases . 2020. pags. 0. ISSN 1058-4838. [consulted: 11 of June of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/162677

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