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Si us plau utilitzeu sempre aquest identificador per citar o enllaçar aquest document: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/187813
The EPICTER score: a bedside and easy tool to predict mortality at 6 months in acute heart failure
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Aims: Estimating the prognosis in heart failure (HF) is important to decide when to refer to palliative care (PC). Our objective was to develop a tool to identify the probability of death within 6 months in patients admitted with acute HF. Methods and results: A total of 2848 patients admitted with HF in 74 Spanish hospitals were prospectively included and followed for 6 months. Each factor independently associated with death in the derivation cohort (60% of the sample) was assigned a prognostic weight, and a risk score was calculated. The accuracy of the score was verified in the validation cohort. The characteristics of the population were as follows: advanced age (mean 78 years), equal representation of men and women, significant comorbidity, and predominance of HF with preserved ejection fraction. During follow-up, 753 patients (26%) died. Seven independent predictors of mortality were identified: age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cognitive impairment, New York Heart Association class III-IV, chronic kidney disease, estimated survival of the patient less than 6 months, and acceptance of a palliative approach by the family or the patient. The area under the ROC curve for 6 month death was 0.74 for the derivation and 0.68 for the validation cohort. The model showed good calibration (Hosmer and Lemeshow test, P value 0.11). The 6 month death rates in the score groups ranged from 6% (low risk) to 54% (very high risk). Conclusions: The EPICTER score, developed from a prospective and unselected cohort, is a bedside and easy-to-use tool that could help to identify high-risk patients requiring PC.
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ROMERO-CORREA, Miriam, SALAMANCA BAUTISTA, Prado, BILBAO-GONZÁLEZ, Amaia, QUIROS LOPEZ, Raul, NIETO-MARTÍN, Maria dolores, MARTÍN-JIMÉNEZ, María luisa, MORALES-RULL, José luis, QUILES-GARCÍA, Dolores, GÓMEZ-GIGIREY, Adriana, FORMIGA PÉREZ, Francesc, ARAMBURU-BODAS, Óscar, ARIAS JIMENEZ, Jose luis, EPICTER Investigators group. The EPICTER score: a bedside and easy tool to predict mortality at 6 months in acute heart failure. _ESC Heart Failure_. 2022. Vol. 9, núm. 4. [consulta: 23 de gener de 2026]. ISSN: 2055-5822. [Disponible a: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/187813]