Modelo de riesgo sobre la oferta de precios fijos en el mercado eléctrico español

Abstract

In our project, we have analyzed the working of the Spanish electricity market, the operators which participate on it, the regulated components, market prices and the existing risk. Likewise, it will be developed a model to quantify and reduce the electricity company risk due to establish a fixed price for the client. The ideal target is a high tension client with a six period rate hired since January 1 st to December 31 st 2017. The model is designed through random variables and probabilities based on historical series. This model will develop an annual cost in raw material, which could be extrapolated to a cost per hour. This process will be repeat until achieving results. This program is going to be developed with Excel device and programmed by “Basic Visual” language. This tool will provide enough information to the company to take a decision about offering a fixed priced to the client. In this case which price could be offer assuming the risks.