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Si us plau utilitzeu sempre aquest identificador per citar o enllaçar aquest document: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/208559
Validity of prognostic models of critical COVID-19 is variable. A systematic review with external validation
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Objectives: To identify prognostic models which estimate the risk of critical COVID-19 in hospitalized patients and to assess their validation properties. Study design and setting: We conducted a systematic review in Medline (up to January 2021) of studies developing or updating a model that estimated the risk of critical COVID-19, defined as death, admission to intensive care unit, and/or use of mechanical ventilation during admission. Models were validated in two datasets with different backgrounds (HM [private Spanish hospital network], n = 1,753, and ICS [public Catalan health system], n = 1,104), by assessing discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration (plots). Results: We validated 18 prognostic models. Discrimination was good in nine of them (AUCs ≥ 80%) and higher in those predicting mortality (AUCs 65%-87%) than those predicting intensive care unit admission or a composite outcome (AUCs 53%-78%). Calibration was poor in all models providing outcome's probabilities and good in four models providing a point-based score. These four models used mortality as outcome and included age, oxygen saturation, and C-reactive protein among their predictors. Conclusion: The validity of models predicting critical COVID-19 by using only routinely collected predictors is variable. Four models showed good discrimination and calibration when externally validated and are recommended for their use.
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BOSCH DE BASEA, Magda, COBO, Inés, SUBIRANA CACHINERO, Isaac, CERESA, Mario, FAMADA, Ernest, GIMENO SANTOS, Elena, DELGADO-ORTIZ, Laura, FANER, Rosa, MOLINA MOLINA, María, AGUSTÍ GARCÍA-NAVARRO, Àlvar, MUÑOZ, Xavier, SIBILA VIDAL, Oriol, GEA GUIRAL, Joaquim, GARCÍA AYMERICH, Judith. Validity of prognostic models of critical COVID-19 is variable. A systematic review with external validation. _Journal of Clinical Epidemiology_. 2023. Vol. 159, núm. 274-288. [consulta: 16 de gener de 2026]. ISSN: 0895-4356. [Disponible a: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/208559]