Bitcoin: A long-run equilibrium with East Asian currencies

Abstract

The purpose of the study will be focused on developing and demonstrating the existence of cointegration between the most important cryptocurrency in the world, BTC-Bitcoin, paired with three different local currencies from selected southeast Asian countries: China (BTC-CNY), South Korea (BTC-KRW) and Japan (BTC-JPY).

In order to achieve the proposed objective, it is extensively developed the entire process currently established by the most important econometric literature, from the analysis of stationarity of the series and the detection of unit roots to the validation of a VAR model to be contrasted with the Johansen test, its resultant cointegration equation (long-run model) and the dynamic adjustment for each of the target variables.

Finally, it has been proposed an ARDL bounds testing approach model to determine and contrast the results obtained with the Johansen test and ensure the existence of a real long-term relationship of the selected series, where the coefficients obtained that determine the link between integrated processes and steady state equilibrium (no growth steady state) using Johansen approach are: 0.0056 (lnBTCKRWt) and 0.0037 (lnBTCJPYt); and through the use of an ARDL bounds testing approach the following coefficients are obtained: 0.00556 (lnBTCKRWt) and 0.00426 (lnBTCJPYt)