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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/110937
The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk
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Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito
population dynamics; understanding its central role is important
for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to
temperature fluctuations, though important across the life
history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used
stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential
equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of
diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito
population dynamics. The model allows exploration of
temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure,
giving insights into the population's capacity to vector malaria
parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age
structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes
varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics
of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the
first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating
temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed
observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a
range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and
precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season
in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers
of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift
in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both
mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for
understanding current and future malaria risk.
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BECK-JOHNSON, Lindsay M., et al. The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding
mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk. Royal Society Open Science. 2017. Vol. 4, num. 3, pags. 160969. ISSN 2054-5703. [consulted: 17 of October of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/110937