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2023-06-02

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cc by (c) Tubau Sala, Elisabet et al., 2023
Si us plau utilitzeu sempre aquest identificador per citar o enllaçar aquest document: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/220822

Previous beliefs affect Bayesian reasoning in conditions fostering gist comprehension

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Recurs relacionat

https://doi.org/10.3758/s13421-023-01435-1

Resum

It has been shown that Bayesian reasoning is afected by the believability of the data, but it is unknown which conditions could potentiate or reduce such belief efect. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the belief efect would mainly be observed in conditions fostering a gist comprehension of the data. Accordingly, we expected to observe a signifcant belief efect in iconic rather than in textual presentations and, in general, when nonnumerical estimates were requested. The results of three studies showed more accurate Bayesian estimates, either expressed numerically or nonnumerically, for icons than for text descriptions of natural frequencies. Moreover, in line with our expectations, nonnumerical estimates were, in general, more accurate for believable rather than for unbelievable scenarios. In contrast, the belief efect on the accuracy of the numerical estimates depended on the format and on the complexity of the calculation. The present fndings also showed that single-event posterior probability estimates based on described frequencies were more accurate when expressed nonnumerically rather than numerically, opening new avenues for the development of interventions to improve Bayesian reasoning.

Matèries

Raonament, Teoria de l'estimació, Probabilitats

Matèries (anglès)

Reasoning, Estimation theory, Probabilities

Citació

Col·leccions

Articles publicats en revistes (Cognició, Desenvolupament i Psicologia de l'Educació)
Articles publicats en revistes (Institut de Neurociències (UBNeuro))

Citació

TUBAU SALA, Elisabet, COLOMÉ, Àngels and RODRÍGUEZ-FERREIRO, Javier. Previous beliefs affect Bayesian reasoning in conditions fostering gist comprehension. Memory & Cognition. 2023. Vol. 51, num. 1819-1835. ISSN 0090-502X. [consulted: 19 of August of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/220822

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