Predicting Financial Distress Across Spanish Football (2018-2021): The Adaptative Role of Competition

Abstract

Objective: The objective is to analyze and compare the financial distress in football addressed to the first and second division. Methodology: Initially, we calculated the comparative scores from models such as Altman (1968, 1983, 2000, 2016), Conan and Holder (1979), Springate (1978), Taffler (1982), and Zmijewski (1984). Subsequently, we applied factorial analysis to investigate the differences across the teams. Finally, we re-estimated the models for the data and contrasted the results. Originality: This paper applies insolvency prediction models to Spanish football teams for the period 2018-2021 and compares the teams according to the division in which they participate. Main Findings: The findings reveal that profitability and indebtedness are the main explanatory variables, highlighting the teams’ lack of adaptation to shocks. Furthermore, the second-division teams exhibited better solvency and profitability than the first-tier clubs in the year following the pandemic outbreak. Contributions: At a theoretical level, this research evaluates the adequacy of these models for this sector and underlines the need to constrain expenses during an exceptional period.paper applies insolvency prediction models to Spanish football teams for the period 2018-