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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/213724
Expected, unexpected, good and bad aggregate uncertainty
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We study aggregate uncertainty and its linear and nonlinear impact on real and financial markets. By distinguishing between four general notions of aggregate uncertainty (good-expected, bad-expected, good-unexpected, bad-unexpected) within a simple, common framework, we show that it is bad-unexpected uncertainty shocks that generate a negative reaction of economic variables (such as investment and consumption) and asset prices. Our results help to elucidate the real, complex nature of uncertainty, which can be both a backward- or forward-looking expected or unexpected event, with markedly different consequences for the economy. We also document nonlinearities in the propagation of uncertainty to both real and financial markets, which calls for the close monitoring of the evolution of uncertainty so as to help mitigate the adverse effects of its occurrence
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URIBE GIL, Jorge Mario and CHULIÁ SOLER, Helena. Expected, unexpected, good and bad aggregate uncertainty. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics. 2022. Vol. 27, num. 2, pags. 265-284. ISSN 1081-1826. [consulted: 11 of October of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/213724