Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)

URI permanent per a aquesta col·leccióhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/17642

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Caracterització de l'accés a la universitat dels estudiants menorquins
(Ateneu de Maó, 2020-01-01) Pons Fanals, Ernest
L’article presenta les principals conclusions d’un treball de recerca que parteix de la preocupació per l’impacte que pot tenir sobre la societat menorquina un accés deficient dels seus estudiants als estudis superiors, en general, i als estudis universitaris, en particular. Davant de la manca d’informació precisa i sistemàtica, s’ha fet un creuament de les diverses fonts d’informació que aporten visions complementàries. I, sobretot, s’ha fet servir la informació referida als estudiants que han accedit els darrers anys a les universitats públiques catalanes per conèixer millor les característiques socioeconòmiques d’aquests estudiants i del seu entorn familiar. L’anàlisi d’aquestes característiques permet cloure l’article amb un seguit de propostes i consideracions que tenen com a objectiu ajudar a millorar la dedicació dels estudiants i, per tant, les possibilitats d’accés a la universitat. I, per tant, l’eficiència del sistema.
On a Bivariate Distribution with Composite Exponential-Pareto Marginals and Dependence in Low-Cost Claims
(Taylor & Francis, 2025) Bolancé Losilla, Catalina; Vernic, Raluca; Bâca, Adrian
Spliced distributions with Pareto tail, better known as compound distributions in the actuarial field, have been intensively studied in the univariate case; however, extending spliced distributions to the bivariate setting is an open problem, so that applications in the bivariate case are rather scarce. In this article, we present an application with auto insurance claim costs that illustrates the importance of using these bivariate distributions in quantifying the risk of loss. We define a bivariate Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern (FGM) distribution with Exponential–Pareto marginals, which are considered with and without the continuity condition at the threshold where the exponential changes to Pareto. After presenting some properties of this bivariate distribution, we discuss a proposed estimation procedure, which is not obvious since the marginal thresholds are unknown parameters and they have to be estimated separately. The properties of the estimation procedure are analyzed through a simulation study. We obtain that the mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) decrease when the sample size increases for a set of positive dependence structures. We also use a real data sample of bivariate claims costs collected from an auto insurance portfolio in Spain. The results show how, when the dependence is taken into account, the shape of the total loss distribution changes affecting the risk of loss.
Back to normal? a method to test and correct a shock impact on healthcare usage frequency data
(Elsevier B.V., 2026-01-01) Moriña, David; Fernández Fontelo, Amanda; Guillén, Montserrat
A method based on Bayesian structural time series is proposed to predict healthcare usage trends and to test for changes in the series levels during or after an abnormal year, such as that of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Our method can also serve to calculate correction factors for frequency count data that can be integrated in a preprocessing step before undertaking a cross-sectional statistical analysis, and, in this way, the impact of a shock can be eliminated. Here, adjustments are derived for a large private health insurer in Spain from estimates of average healthcare usage. Median claims rate levels in 2020 were 15 % down on 2019 figures, but rose in 2021 and 2022, when the rate was 11 % and 8 % higher than in 2019, respectively. Once the shock correction is incorporated in the preprocessing step, our approach is shown to outperform traditional time series techniques. Healthcare insurance usage in Spain did not fully go back to normal levels (assuming that pre-pandemic values represent normality) in 2022, with the exception of some patient groups and specific medical services. Our method can be implemented in other areas of risk analysis when frequency counts are exposed to shocks and it allows estimating the difference in claims volume between real figures and those estimated, had the shock not occurred.
Too big to stay? The restructuring of Italy’s flag carrier and its consequences on airline pricing
(Elsevier Ltd., 2026-04-01) Bergantino, Angela S.; Borsati, Mattia; Fageda, Xavier, 1975-; Intini, Mario
Airline financial distress is a global phenomenon, yet its market implications remain underexplored. A notable case is the restructuring of Italy’s flag carrier, Alitalia, which went bankrupt and ceased operations on October 14, 2021. The following day, ITA Airways took over, inheriting parts of Alitalia’s network while operating under a distinct governance and management structure. This article examines how this transition has affected Italy’s aviation market and fare dynamics. By estimating price regressions at the route level using monthly fare data from 2017 to 2023, and by accounting for the non-random selection of routes retained by the airline after the reorganization, we find that the restructuring led to lower fares in the domestic market but higher prices on international routes, particularly for long-haul flights. In response to competitive pressures, ITA has adopted a more complex pricing strategy: functioning as a low-cost carrier domestically while raising fares on long-haul routes.
Bayesian modeling approach for detecting local determinants of the spatial distribution of immigrant communities in large cities: The case of Barcelona
(Elsevier, 2026-02-17) Buda, Gergely; Puig, Xavier; Clavería González, Óscar
This paper presents a novel approach to identify local determinants of the spatial distribution of international immigrants in big cities. The methodology is based on Bayesian spatial analysis, and it is applied to assess the association of a wide range of variables with the location of the main migrant groups in the Barcelona County. The proposed Bayesian modeling strategy allows addressing spatial dependency and feature selection. Overall, the analysis suggests that factors such as distance from the city center, the proportion of rental housing, and access to public transportation account for much of the variation in location choice. However, these factors exhibit varying effects across different immigrant groups, underscoring the heterogeneous nature of settlement patterns. The findings offer valuable insights for urban policymakers seeking to address the challenges posed by immigration in big cities and to design effective integration strategies.
The environmental challenge in aviation: Can airport charges be part of the solution?
(The University of Chicago Press, 2024-09-01) Fageda, Xavier, 1975-; Flores-Fillol, Ricardo
Aviation is becoming a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and generates local pollution with harmful health effects. This study examines the effects of airport charges by means of a theoretical setup and an empirical application. The equilibrium analysis identifies how airport charges affect fares, frequencies, and aircraft emissions. The welfare analysis concludes that frequencies are excessive when the damage caused by emissions is severe. Finally, our model explores mechanisms for revenue-neutral airports to compensate rises in emission charges by lowering nonemission charges to generate incentives for airlines to renew their fleets. The empirical analysis concludes that NOx emission charges have a modest effect on fares and frequencies as compared to per-passenger and per-flight charges. Although only emission charges spur the use of newer aircraft, they should be much higher than their actual values to play a relevant role in contributing to a more sustainable aviation.
Carbon pricing effects on renewables: evidence from California’s electricity market
(Elsevier Ltd., 2026-03-15) Dilek, Gokhan; Serrano, Mònica (Serrano Gutiérrez); Teixidó Figueras, Jordi J.
California's electricity market is remarkable due to its distinctive regulatory framework, which incorporates a cap-and-trade system and a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). However, our understanding of the effects of these carbon pricing policies on renewables deployment in California and its neighboring states is limited. Here we show that California's cap-and-trade policy has a positive effect on renewable electricity capacity at a county level, with an additional 148.9 MW on average compared to the counterfactual scenario with no carbon pricing; this equates to a 6.71 percentage point increase in the share of statewide renewable electricity capacity. Regarding the CBAM, we show novel ex-post evidence on the effects of the CBAM on California's main trading partners in terms of new renewable capacity. We find that the CBAM positively impacts renewable capacity in California's neighboring states if their electricity exports are not already from renewable sources (Arizona and Nevada, but not Oregon, which has major exports from hydroelectric plants). A thorough discussion of complementary policies (such as the role played by Renewable Portfolio Standards) is presented and the results are robust to them. These results are relevant in terms of the effects of carbon pricing on the adoption of zero‑carbon technology.
Impacto económico regional de las Universidades latinoamericanas
(Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, 2025-03-25) Suriñach Caralt, Jordi; Vayá, Esther; López Tamayo, Jordi; Murillo Viu, Joaquín
El artículo supone la primera aportación en la que se estima el impacto económico de un conjunto de nueve universidades de América Latina siguiendo un enfoque de demanda y con una metodología homogénea. Las universidades analizadas responden a diferentes perfiles en función de su titularidad, dimensión, antigüedad o ubicación en el territorio. Aplicando la metodología input-output se estiman los impactos derivados de los gastos e inversiones que realizan tanto las universidades como los agentes vinculados a ellas. Los resultados muestran unos impactos significativos (del 4% del PIB regional dependiendo del caso), que se extienden por todo el territorio nacional y todos los sectores económicos. Se demuestra que el impacto económico y social es muy relevante, sobre todo en las universidades con un alto nivel de actividades de I+D+I.
The Impact of the Female Advantage in Education on the Family
(University of Wisconsin, 2025-10-08) Rodríguez González, Ana
Men’s historical advantage in educational attainment has recently been reversed in many countries. I study the implications for family formation of the new female advantage in education in the marriage market, exploiting a Finnish school reform that increased women’s relative level of education. I analyze the reduced-form relationship between marriage market exposure to the reform and family outcomes. I find decreases in marriage and fertility in marriage markets with a larger female educational advantage. These results are mostly driven by the mismatch between the educational distributions of men and women, and might have negative consequences for low-educated men’s mental health.
Anàlisi comparativa de diferents formats d’aula invertida en cursos d’economia de nivell avançat
(Congrés Internacional de Docència Universitària i Innovació (CIDUI), 2025) Abío, Gemma; Alcañiz, Manuela; Gómez-Puig, Marta; Patxot, Concepció; Rubert, Glòria; Serrano, Mònica (Serrano Gutiérrez); Stoyanova, Alexandrina Petrova
Aquest projecte pretén comprendre com la metodologia d’aula invertida en cursos avançats influeix en el rendiment i l’aprenentatge dels estudiants. Es vol determinar l’extensió idònia d’aquesta metodologia en un curs avançat del grau en Economia. S’analitzarà un conjunt de dades per comparar l’impacte de diferents formats d’aula invertida a l’assignatura de Macroeconomia IV, centrant-se en el rendiment acadèmic i les percepcions dels estudiants sobre la metodologia. L’anàlisi permetrà identificar com varien els resultats i les opinions dels estudiants segons s’apliqui un enfocament més o menys extens de la metodologia d’aula invertida.
The impact of carbon pricing on tourist destinations: Shifts in demand, supply and emissions in the European aviation market
(Elsevier, 2025-06-01) Fageda, Xavier, 1975-; Oesingmann, Katrin
This paper provides novel evidence of the impact of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) as applied to the aviation sector on tourist destinations. We use annual data at the route level for the period 2010–2022 and consider a sample comprising a large set of European cities of origin, on the one hand, and tourist destinations in Europe, North and West Africa and the Middle East, on the other. We apply a difference-in-differences analysis to a matched sample and find that the EU ETS has led to less emissions, less flights and to a lower extent less seats. In contrast, we do not find a negative impact of the EU ETS on passenger numbers. While the attractiveness of tourist destinations in Europe does not seem to have been affected by the EU ETS, our results suggest that it has promoted greater efficiency in airline operations.
The impact of new aircraft on CO2 emissions
(Elsevier Ltd., 2025-10-01) Bernardo, Valeria; Fageda, Xavier, 1975-
We examine the impact of new aircraft on total CO₂ emissions, seeking to determine whether their greater fuel efficiency may be offset by supply growth. We draw on granular global data at the aircraft–airline–route level between 2017 and 2023 and employ propensity score matching and entropy balancing to build a sample of comparable airline–route pairs operated or otherwise by new aircraft. We then analyze how the share of new aircraft correlates with supply and carbon emissions by estimating a high-dimensional fixed effects model. Overall, we find that the adoption of new aircraft has led to a substantial increase in supply that does, in part, offset the greater fuel efficiency. However, we find evidence of heterogeneous effects depending on the type of route or geographical area analyzed. All in all, our results point to the limitations of new aircraft for reducing carbon emissions at the global level.
Intercontinental air travel in the era of carbon pricing: demand and hub shifts
(Elsevier Ltd., 2025-10-01) Fageda, Xavier, 1975-; Oesingmann, Katrin
In this paper, we investigate the causal relationship between carbon pricing and air travel demand in the intercontinental market. Using granular demand data for one-stop routes connecting airports in Europe with Asia and North America, we estimate regressions with multiple fixed effects to account for both time-invariant and time-varying factors that could confound the identification of policy effects. Our approach leverages variability in carbon prices in the European Union Emissions Trading System by comparing changes in routes subject to the policy (i.e., those involving European hubs) with routes unaffected by the policy (i.e., those involving non-European hubs). Our findings indicate that the carbon price variable is consistently negative and statistically significant across all regressions. A 100% increase in the price of EU ETS allowances reduces passenger traffic through European hubs by 2% to 6%. These results provide novel evidence of the policy’s effectiveness in the long-haul market, while also highlighting the phenomenon of hub carbon leakage. Additionally, we find that joint ventures between European and non-European airlines mitigate the policy's impact.
Turismo y transporte, dos demandas y un destino
(Fundación de las Cajas de Ahorros (FUNCAS), 2025-11-05) Bernardo, Valeria; Fageda, Xavier, 1975-; Oesingmann, Katrin
En este trabajo se analiza la fuerte interrelación entre la demanda ligada al turismo internacional y la asociada al transporte aéreo. Con este propósito, se hace una revisión de la literatura académica y se aportan datos detallados sobre las vías de acceso de turistas internacionales con destino a una región española. Sobre esta base, se tratan de identificar algunos factores determinantes que explican la relación entre ambas demandas, incluyendo el papel de las compañías aéreas de bajo coste, las externalidades negativas asociadas al transporte aéreo y la política aeroportuaria (tasas e inversiones).
Determinants of air cargo traffic in Europe: Intercontinental flights, competition and airlines’ business model
(Elsevier Ltd., 2025-11-01) Fageda, Xavier, 1975-; Gonzalez Aregall, Marta
In this paper, we examine the determinants of air cargo traffic in European airports from 2002 to 2019 by estimating a two-way fixed effects model. We focus on the correlation between air cargo and key attributes of passenger services at airports, including the number of non-stop intercontinental destinations, the share of network airlines, and the intensity of competition. We consider different samples with a special attention to mid-sized airports located in relatively big cities. We find that the availability of direct flights to North America, East Asia, and the Middle East has a positive impact on air cargo. A higher percentage of flights offered by network airlines leads to more air cargo as well. However, we also find that competition stimulates air cargo, meaning that medium-sized airports can benefit from a greater presence of non-European network airlines.
Airline Economics
(Elsevier, 2025-12-01) D'Alfonso, Tiziana; Fageda, Xavier, 1975-
This Special Issue brings together a collection of empirical and theoretical contributions that deepen our understanding of airline economics through a diverse range of topics, methodologies, and geographic focuses. The contributions cover key aspects of airline behavior, from pricing strategies and cooperative agreements to environmental policy responses and demand-side transformations. In parallel, several papers engage with broader questions of transportation system integration, intermodal competition, and the role of regulation in shaping outcomes for firms, consumers, and society. Collectively, these papers highlight how the airline industry is adapting to structural changes, e.g., the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic (such as the rise of telecommuting and remote work), evolving competitive environments, environmental constraints, and regulatory pressures. The findings presented here offer both rigorous academic insights and valuable policy guidance. By leveraging data-rich analyses and theoretical modeling, these papers collectively inform pressing questions regarding sustainability, equity, and efficiency in the air transport sector.
Technology Diffusion in Carbon Markets: Evidence from Aviation
(Springer Verlag, 2025-11-04) Fageda, Xavier, 1975-; Teixidó-Figueras, Jordi
Carbon pricing has been found mainly to foster low-carbon innovation but not low-carbon technology adoption. Focusing on the aviation sector, a hard-to-abate industry, we provide novel evidence that the EU’s Emission Trading System (EU ETS) is responsible for a greater diffusion of available low-carbon technologies. By exploiting a policy change in the carbon market scope, we find a more intensive use of efficient aircraft and a sizeable effect of aircraft retrofitting – use of winglets – compared to the counterfactual, driving improvements in emission intensity. These effects, however, are not uniform: aircraft choice and retrofitting decisions differ between Eastern and Western routes. Examining the mechanisms behind our findings, we show that the more intensive use of efficient aircraft—either through fleet replacement or differential use—is the main factor driving the ETS’s effect on emission intensity. Our study highlights the importance of carbon pricing to accelerate the adoption rates of low carbon technologies, even in hard-to-abate sectors.
Early climate mitigation as a social dilemma
(Elsevier B.V., 2024-01-08) Castro Santa, Juana; Moros, Lina; Exadaktylos, Filippos; Mantilla, César
We introduce a novel game where a decaying atmospheric quality, modeled as a stock variable determining the payoff externality, can be counteracted through individual mitigation efforts. It encompasses three characteristics of climate change as a social dilemma: (a) the continuous nature of climate degradation, (b) the constant influx of emissions resulting from human economic activities, and (c) the greater efficacy of early mitigation actions. We report findings from an experiment where, across four treatments, we manipulate the starting atmospheric quality and introduce inequality in the endowments employed to mitigate. Results indicate that subjects fail to mitigate in early periods, an individually rational strategy. We do not find differences between treatments at the aggregate level. However, participants treat their groupmates’ past mitigation as a strategic substitute for their own mitigation (i.e., if others’ mitigation increase, participants reduce their mitigation). This substitution is less intense if the initial atmospheric quality is negative.
Tendiendo puentes entre las ciencias sociales y la ciudadanía: cómo comunicar evidencia científica
(Ministerio de Industria, Comercio y Turismo, 2025-10-01) Brandts, Jordi; Busom, Isabel; López-Mayán, Cristina
Presentamos un panorama de la investigación experimental sobre cómo comunicar a la ciudadanía la evidencia científica sobre los efectos que tienen diversas políticas públicas, para que aquella pueda tomar decisiones informadas. La existencia de creencias infundadas sobre el funcionamiento de algunas políticas, debidas a menudo a una visión intuitiva y parcial de las mismas, conduce a que se apoyen políticas que reducen el bienestar de la sociedad. Revisamos las bases psicológicas y sociales de dichas creencias, y presentamos evidencia sobre el impacto que tienen diversos formatos de comunicación de la evidencia científica sobre las mismas. Para algunas políticas, como la de control de alquileres, el formato visual produce un mayor abandono de creencias infundadas que el formato escrito.
Retos del Turismo Sostenible en España
(Fundación de las Cajas de Ahorros (FUNCAS), 2025-10-01) Álvarez Verdugo, Milagros; Bel i Queralt, Germà, 1963-; Cardesa-Salzmann, Antonio; Donaire Benito, José A.
Nuestro objetivo es diagnosticar los principales retos del turismo sostenible en España y derivar algunas implicaciones útiles de política pública al respecto. Para dar una base a nuestro diagnóstico, primero discutimos qué significa y qué dimensiones tiene el concepto ‘sostenibilidad’ aplicado al turismo. Después, proponemos una geografía de las áreas problemáticas del turismo en España. Sobre estas bases analizamos la evidencia disponible sobre algunas áreas problemáticas del turismo en España, derivamos algunas implicaciones para la política pública

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