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Si us plau utilitzeu sempre aquest identificador per citar o enllaçar aquest document: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/187583
Monitoring daily unemployment at risk
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Using a high-frequency framework, we show that the Auroba-Diebold-Scotti (ADS) daily business conditions index significantly increases the accuracy of U.S. unemployment nowcasts in real-time. This is of particular relevance in times of recession, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, when the unemployment rate is prone to rise steeply. Based on our results, the ADS index presents itself as a better predictor than the financial indicators widely used by the literature and central banks, including both interest and credit spreads and the VXO.
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CHULIÁ SOLER, Helena, GARRÓN VEDIA, Ignacio, URIBE GIL, Jorge mario. Monitoring daily unemployment at risk. _IREA – Working Papers_. 2022. Vol. IR22/11. [consulta: 23 de gener de 2026]. [Disponible a: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/187583]