Documents de treball (Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada Regional i Pública (IREA))

URI permanent per a aquesta col·leccióhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/54514

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Credit portfolio losses with climate change factors
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Tubella Domingo, Oriol; Ortiz García, Luis
In this work, we consider the problem of computing risk measures of a credit portfolio via the evaluation of the characteristic function of the loss variable. We propose a new methodology to obtain the characteristic function of the loss distribution when the dependence structure is driven by either the Gaussian or t-copula model. This new approach relies on a quadrature method based on Shannon wavelets and the cardinal sine function. It works out extremely well for the one-factor and the multi-factor model when, in the second case, a moderate number of risk factors are considered. Then, we compare with some of the state-of-the-art methods to perform the same task, and we get much better results in terms of execution time and accuray. As quadrature methods are affected by the curse of dimensionality, we further introduce a simulation approach to evaluate the characteristic function in the case of multi-factor models with many risk factors. The simulation is based on lowdiscrepancy Monte Carlo sequences. A broad set of numerical examples illustrate the efficiency of our methodology. We conclude our work with a real portfolio where the exposures are taken from the European Investment Bank, and we incorporate climate change-related factors into the analysis. This study highlights the practical relevance of our methodology for assessing credit risk in portfolios exposed to emerging environmental challenges.
Comportamiento predictivo de los analistas institucionales españoles durante los últimos 25 años
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Clavería González, Óscar; Pons Novell, Jordi
En el actual entorno de incertidumbre económica, las predicciones de los agentes adquieren especial relevancia. El presente estudio se centra en las predicciones de eventos fijos realizadas por un panel de agentes institucionales durante los últimos 25 años. Las instituciones elaboran previsiones para la economía española con horizontes decrecientes durante un período de dos años, realizando revisiones cada dos meses durante este proceso. A partir de las predicciones de crecimiento económico, inflación y desempleo, así como de sus revisiones posteriores, construimos un panel de datos con los errores de previsión y la magnitud de las revisiones, tanto en relación con su previsión previa como con la previsión de consenso, entendida como la media de las previsiones. (.../...)
Integrating Road Safety and Environmental Impact via Telematics: Modeling Traffic Accident Risk Using Vehicle Emissions
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Yanez, Juan Sebastian; Guillén, Montserrat; Roszkowsk, Paulina; Nielsen, Jens Perch
Private vehicles harm public health by contributing to air pollution and traffic accidents, the leading cause of death among young adults. Despite these risks, drivers often ignore speed limits, while society increasingly prioritizes environmental protection. This tension between personal habits and collective responsibility highlights the urgent need for strategies to promote safer driving practices. Therefore, this paper introduces a novel approach to evaluating road crash risk using air pollutants as exposure measures, so drivers are simultaneously encouraged to reduce their environmental footprint and mitigate their road crash risk. We use a rich dataset of over 1,500 at-fault crash-related claims recorded over two years provided by an insurance company, merged with detailed telematics driving data for individual vehicles. We show that available emission factor models enable the integration of emission-based exposure measures to model road crash risk. Then, we provide empirical evidence that incorporating behavioral telematics data makes pollutant-driven models as efficient as traditional distance-driven ones. Our proposition has the potential to enhance road safety and reduce air pollution by directly linking environmentally conscious driving practices with reducing road crash risks.
Proportionality between allocations in asset management
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2026) Vega Baquero, Juan David; Santolino, Miguel
Asset allocation refers to deciding the optimal participation of each asset within a portfolio. Therefore, these participations are a composition, and compositional methods should be used to treat the data and perform analysis over it. When trying to find relationships between parts of a composition, proportions have shown to be more suitable than correlations. In this paper, using a previous proportionality index as starting point, two new indexes are proposed and all of them are used to analyze the asset allocation in a portfolio composed of five stocks from the IBEX 35 (the Spanish stock market index). Results shed light on the connection between volatility, allocations and their proportionality.
Fewer seats, resilient frequencies: Impacts of large-scale High-Speed Rail liberalisation on air transport supply
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Albalate, Daniel, 1980-; Gragera Lladó, Albert; Suau-Sánchez, Pere
This paper examines the liberalisation of high-speed rail (HSR) as a driver of intermodal competition in long-distance passenger transport. While previous research has primarily focused on the effects of HSR infrastructure deployment on aviation, less is known about how opening HSR markets to new entrants reshapes this competition. Drawing on the Spanish HSR liberalisation in 2021, we are the first to evaluate the causal effects of a large-scale liberalisation on competing air transport supply. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find significant long-term reductions in airline seat supply (10- 16%), but limited impact on frequencies. We then uncover two mechanisms underlying these results. First, airlines’ primary response was to down-gauge aircraft. Second, a market share emerged from the need of legacy carriers to preserve frequencies to feed their hub. Our results underscore the broad and significant implications of liberalisation for intermodal substitution.
Refrigeration, Diets and Human Health: Evidence from Ghana
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Ntsiful, Enoch; Cohen, François
Little is known about household-level interventions to strengthen household resilience to food insecurity. Rapid electrification could enable refrigeration and transform how food is stored, prepared, and consumed. We provide the first causal evidence on how access to refrigeration affects food insecurity and dietary quality in a low-income country. Our identification exploits appliance breakdowns, comparing households with functioning and broken refrigerators purchased at the same time and similar prices. Losing access increases food insecurity by one third and reduces consumption of animal-sourced foods, lowering intake of vitamin B12. Refrigeration is an overlooked lever to improve diets and reduce micronutrient deficiencies.
Hot Property: A Spatial Analysis of Temperature and Housing Prices in Spain
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Fernández-Pérez, Adrián; Gómez-Puig, Marta; Sosvilla Rivero, Simón
This study examines the impact of extreme temperatures on housing price dynamics in Spain, considering both direct and indirect effects across geographic space. Using panel data at the provincial level and a spatial econometric model, we find that an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures exceeding 35 °C (95ºF) over the past year is significantly associated with a decline in both sale and rental prices within the affected province. However, we also identify a positive indirect effect on housing markets in more distant provinces, particularly in the rental sector, consistent with a pattern of temperature-induced house price premium in cooler regions. A central methodological contribution of this paper is the use of spatial econometric techniques to detect and quantify these spillover effects. By explicitly modelling spatial dependence, we can disentangle local impacts from broader geographic transmission mechanisms, revealing how climate stressors reshape housing demand across regions. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating climate-related factors into real estate market analysis and the design of adaptation policies.
Partisan Climate Action, Utility Interests, and Policy Choice in the U.S. Power Sector
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Peña Tello, Witson
This paper investigates how U.S. gubernatorial partisanship and electric utility interests jointly shape the adoption and stringency of three widely used electricity-sector climate policies: greenhouse gas cap-and-trade, emissions standards, and renewable portfolio standards. Using panel data for 48 states over 29 years, this study applies difference-indifferences and regression discontinuity designs that exploit within-state partisan alternation and quasi-random variation from close gubernatorial elections. The results indicate that Democratic governorships associate with higher probabilities of policy adoption and greater stringency than Republican ones. However, these partisan effects attenuate in states with fossil-intensive utility capacity and strengthen in renewable-rich states, particularly for discretionary and mandatory renewable portfolio standards. This work extends the empirical political economy literature by comparing instrument choice and stringency across three major electricity-sector climate policies and by evaluating how utility sector composition and reelection incentives moderate or amplify partisan influence. The findings highlight that electricity-sector decarbonization strategies need to account for both environmental externalities and the local political-economic conditions that shape feasible policy options.
Environmental degradation, income and economic complexity: Evidence from European countries
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Clavería González, Óscar; Sorić, Petar
Recent energy tensions caused by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have added to the pressure that global warming exerts for an energy transition towards low-carbon energy sources. This study combines two time series approaches with the aim of delving deeper into the relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth and to test the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, using information from 20 European countries between 2007 and 2021. Overall, the obtained results suggest the existence of a N-shaped nexus between emissions and income per capita. Additionally, we evaluated stability of this nexus and the potential existence of an asymmetric adjustment. In most countries we find asymmetries in the adjustment of emissions to positive and negative changes in income, but not so much in economic complexity. However, notable differences are observed between countries, which could be indicating their differentiated phase in the EKC curve.
Britaly? Identifying euro area historical analogues to the UK’s 2022 bond market shock
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Andrada-Félix, Julián; Gómez-Puig, Marta; Sosvilla Rivero, Simón
Comparing the UK’s 2022 sovereign debt crisis with earlier European examples is crucial for a holistic understanding of how such crises emerge and evolve to better comprehend the warning signs of sovereign distress and the importance of coherent and credible economic governance. Both crises were marked by sudden and severe shifts in investor confidence. The UK government’s “mini budget” announcement on September 23, 2022, sent yields on UK gilts soaring at a daily rate not seen since the 1990s. Similarly, official disclosure by Papandreou’s government regarding the actual state of Greece’s public finances on October 20, 2009, caused daily sovereign debt yields in some euro area countries to rise to levels not seen since joining the euro. The primary objective of this paper is to conduct a comparative econometric analysis of the euro area sovereign bond market, with the goal of identifying past episodes similar to the turmoil experienced in the UK government bond market during September–October 2022. This comparative perspective aims to provide valuable insights for future crisis prevention in an increasingly interconnected global financial system. Specifically, we use daily data on 10-year government bond yields from January 3, 2000, to June 30, 2023, and apply both univariate and multivariate nearest neighbours’ techniques. (.../...)
Migrant Inventors and Environmental-Related Technologies: A Life Cycle Perspective in US MSAs
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Viola, Salvatore; Moreno Serrano, Rosina; Miguélez, Ernest; Consoli, Davide; Perruchas, François
One important factor in addressing climate change is the development and deployment of environmental-related, or green, technologies (GT). Environmental-related technologies are distinct, requiring specific conditions to be developed which vary depending on their relative level of technological maturity. Recent studies have focused on the role of migrant inventors in creating these conditions and spurring regional diversification into new technological domains. Regional diversification helps regions avoid lock-in and even escape fossil fuel dependencies. While the contribution of migrants to science and innovation is well documented, less attention has been given to migrants and diversification, especially in the case of GT and along the technological life cycle. In this study, we investigate the role of US-based migrant inventors in regional GT diversification using patent data from the USPTO between the year 1990 and 2012. We find that migrant inventors are positively associated with regional GT diversification, partly as a result of their previous patenting experience as well as the specializations of their countries of origin. With regard to the technological life cycle, while geographically diffused technologies rely on corresponding inventor experience, emergent technological diversification benefits from inventors from specialized countries. These findings highlight the bridging role that migrant inventors in international knowledge transfer and their importance in regional diversification in particular environmental-related technologies.
Economic Complexity and the Resilience-Sustainability Strategy for Climate Change
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Bistuer, David; Chuliá Soler, Helena; Uribe Gil, Jorge Mario
Previous development studies have documented a positive relationship between economic complexity and better environmental outcomes, as well as highlighted policy avenues that could leverage economic complexity as a roadmap for decarbonization and green growth. We build on this perspective by empirically demonstrating—using recent advances in explainable and causal machine learning—that economic complexity is also meaningfully linked to climate change resilience. Specifically, we show that more complex economies tend to be less vulnerable to climate change due to their stronger adaptive and coping capacities. These capacities are evidenced by stronger institutions, better long-term health outcomes, and, notably, a higher proportion of people employed in R&D. Our findings also reveal a positive association between exposure to climate risk due to geography and complexity, but only in cases of extreme exposure. While exposure to climate change itself is beyond the reach of policy intervention, vulnerability is not. By using an economic complexity framework combined with investments in knowledge intensive intangibles and large-scale long-term health interventions, policymakers can align the seemingly divergent goals of climate resilience and decarbonization, which is crucial, especially for developing nations.
Trickle-Down Economics, Merit, and Redistribution: An Experiment with the Poorest and Richest US Americans
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Brunetti, Roberto; Grimalda, Gianluca; Marino, Maria
Despite growing income inequality, demand for redistribution has remained stagnant, which is puzzling for the poor. We investigate whether attitudes toward “trickle-down” economics and fairness affect redistribution demand. We involve US residents from the bottom and top 20% of the income distribution (N = 2, 346) in experimental redistributive decisions from high-income real-life entrepreneurs to low-income recipients. We find that entrepreneurs’ activities possibly generating trickle-down effects, such as employing 1,000 workers, are irrelevant to redistribution. Conversely, the desire to sanction the “undeserving poor” and, less importantly, to reward the “deserving rich” significantly affect redistribution. High-income and low-income participants’ decisions follow surprisingly similar patterns
Language of Instruction, Bilingualism, and Neighbourhood Quality: Do Local Language Skills Matter?
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Di Paolo, Antonio
This paper investigates whether acquiring proficiency in a local language improves neighbourhood quality in a bilingual region, focusing on Catalonia, Spain. The analysis uses rich microdata linked to census-tract measures of neighbourhood quality, including average local income, unemployment benefits per capita, and a composite socioeconomic status index. OLS results show that oral proficiency in Catalan among native Spanish speakers is associated with better residential outcomes. To address potential endogeneity of language skills, I exploit the implementation of a language-ineducation policy that introduced Catalan as a medium of instruction, promoting Catalan-Spanish bilingualism among native Spanish speakers. Specifically, I construct an instrument consisting in the interaction between years of language exposure during compulsory education and an indicator for native Spanish speakers, considering that the reform did not affect oral Catalan proficiency among native Catalan speakers and assuming cohort trends unrelated to the reform are homogeneous across language groups. IV/TSLS estimates reveal no causal effect of increased oral Catalan skills, induced by school language exposure among native Spanish speakers, on any measure of neighbourhood quality. Falsification exercises aimed at validating the main identification assumption, along with robustness checks addressing potential confounders and alternative mechanisms, support the identification strategy and reinforce the main findings. Overall, the results suggest that although the reform significantly raised oral Catalan proficiency among native Spanish speakers, this variation in language skills does not translate into changes in residential sorting or neighbourhood quality.
Bilateral trade between China and the European Union: Emerging challenges and opportunities in a shifting global landscape
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Clavería González, Óscar; Borsi, Mihály Tamás
This paper examines trade relations between China and the European Union from 2000 to 2022, focusing on the role of trade policy uncertainty alongside key economic and institutional factors. Using an extended gravity model, the results show that China’s economic growth is a dominant driver of trade flows. The study introduces a novel proxy for China’s trade policy uncertainty, finding that it significantly influences bilateral trade. Results are robust to different specifications. Additionally, the results indicate that while non-eurozone EU countries demonstrate higher trade flows with China, the immediate impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative on EU trade remains limited. Given the anticipatory nature of trade policy uncertainty and its relationship with economic growth, the findings highlight the usefulness of trade uncertainty indicators as tools for the early detection of shifts in trade patterns, offering valuable insights for policymakers to design strategies that promote greater stability and economic integration.
The shadow of polarization is long: trust in the government and independent institutions after 142 government changes
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Guirola-Abenza, Luis M.; Rivero, Gonzalo
We study how political polarization impacts trust in the government and independent institutions. We gather microdata from 27 countries over three decades and identify 142 government changes. For each of these events, we run a difference in differences design comparing left and right-wing supporters to identify the effect on trust caused by a particular party controlling the executive. The estimated effect ranges from 0 to 2.1 standard deviations, and is systematically larger when party polarization is stronger– this variable alone explains 72% of the variation. The effect propagates onto trust in the European Central Bank and other institutions outside government control. Examining the mechanism, we find evidence consistent with a) lack of knowledge about independence and b) that elections under high polarization are high-stakes events affecting multiple dimensions, including subjective wellbeing, and trust toward the political system as a whole.
Captive or non-captive: Knowledge sourcing strategies and innovation performance
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Tojeiro Rivero, Damián; Moreno Serrano, Rosina
Prior literature has argued that, although both captive knowledge sourcing (CKS) and non-captive knowledge sourcing (NCKS) are effective strategies for enhancing firm innovativeness, the former plays a more defined role in determining the likelihood of a firm achieving product innovations. However, we contend that the focus should not only be on the decision to innovate but, more importantly, on the profitability firms derive from such innovations. Given that knowledge acquired from external sources can provide firms with ideas that differ from their existing competencies, NCKS may be more advantageous, as the resulting innovations are likely to exhibit higher levels of novelty. Additionally, we examine the complementarity or substitutability between CKS and NCKS in driving innovation. Our findings for Spanish firms suggest that NCKS yields greater benefits than CKS. Moreover, adopting both strategies simultaneously does not result in higher benefits; instead, a minimum threshold of NCKS, above the median, is necessary to realize observable gains. This indicates that firms must demonstrate a substantial level of commitment to NCKS to effectively exploit its potential for generating returns from their most novel innovations.
Deprivations rarely come alone. Multidimensional poverty dynamics in Europe
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Suppa, Nicolai
This paper proposes a framework to analyse micro-level dynamics inherent to multidimensional poverty measures. Specifically, I use differences in deprivation transition probabilities between multidimensionally poor and non-poor people, to analyse how deprivations couple over time. Advantages of this approach include that it (i) summarises relevant mechanisms, (ii) requires only short-run panel data and (iii) is suitable for monitoring purposes. Using the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) for 20+ countries over 2016–2020, I find that deprivations tend to couple over time. Implications include that coordinated policy programmes seem critical to overcome entrenched and prevent future deprivations.
Bilingual Education and Identity
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Caminal Echevarría, Ramon; Di Paolo, Antonio; Ferrer i Carbonell, Ada
We present new evidence on the impact of a reform that introduced Catalan-Spanish bilingual education in Catalonia on identity formation. Specifically, we revisit the findings of Clots-Figueras and Masella (2013, The Economic Journal) by examining how exposure to Catalan as medium of instruction affects identity and political preferences. To do so, we use more recent data from repeated cross-sections and multiple alternative sources. Furthermore, we explore an overlooked dimension of identity: self-identification language. At the aggregate level, we find a small but negative effect of bilingual education on the likelihood of identifying as exclusively Catalan. Our results are robust to a battery of sensitivity checks and falsification tests. However, they differ significantly from those of Clots-Figueras and Masella. Our replication of their results reveals a lack of robustness, primarily due to their definitions of identity, as well as to other aspects of their model specification. Our analysis of heterogeneous effects shows that the small negative impact of the reform on identifying as “only Catalan” is entirely driven by individuals from non-Catalan backgrounds, whether in terms of native language or parental origins. For this group, exposure to bilingual education also reduces the likelihood of adopting Catalan as the language of self-identification and support for the independence of Catalonia. These findings suggest that the language-in-education reform might have triggered a backlash effect.
Examining the transmission of credit and liquidity risks: A network analysis for EMU sovereign debt markets
(Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, 2025) Fernández Rodríguez, Fernando, 1954-; Gómez-Puig, Marta; Sosvilla Rivero, Simón
The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area revealed that European Monetary Union (EMU) government bond markets interact in a highly synchronised network and that risk particular to a country or sovereign bond yield component cannot be appropriately evaluated in isolation without taking potential risk transmission effects from other countries or sovereign bond yield omponents into consideration. Therefore, in clear contrast with the empirical evidence based on Granger-causality tests, the main contribution of the paper comes from the analysis of the transmission of credit and liquidity risk by examining a broad network of relations between the two risks in nine EMU sovereign debt markets from 2008 to 2018, explicitly examining the net pairwise connectedness among all the possible pairs formed from the 18 sovereign risk indicators. The results of this analysis indicate that, on average, risk transmission goes mostly from credit to liquidity risk (both within and across countries). This finding is crucial for policymakers because it indicates that rising credit risk is the primary driver of yield spread increases, and actions to strengthen the budgetary position of euro-area economies are essential. Finally, our results indicate that sovereign risk transmission is time-varying. Although both liquidity and credit risk were transmitted across countries during the Global Financial Crisis, we mainly observed the transmission of liquidity risk across them during the European sovereign debt crisis, suggesting that investors prefer sovereign debt that is easier to trade when market liquidity dries up.

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