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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/107211
Modeling longevity risk with generalized dynamic factor models and vine-copulae
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We present a methodology to forecast mortality rates and estimate longevity and mortality risks. The methodology uses generalized dynamic factor models fitted to the differences in the log-mortality rates. We compare their prediction performance with that of models previously described in the literature, including the traditional static factor model fitted to log-mortality rates. We also construct risk measures using vine-copula simulations, which take into account the dependence between the idiosyncratic components of the mortality rates. The methodology is applied to forecast mortality rates for a population portfolio for the United Kingdom and to estimate longevity and mortality risks
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CHULIÁ SOLER, Helena, GUILLÉN, Montserrat and URIBE GIL, Jorge Mario. Modeling longevity risk with generalized dynamic factor models and vine-copulae. ASTIN Bulletin . 2016. Vol. 46, num. 1, pags. 165-190. ISSN 0515-0361. [consulted: 10 of August of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/107211