Impact of ceiling of care on mortality across four COVID-19 epidemic waves in Catalonia: a multicentre prospective cohort study

Abstract

Objective The aim of this study was to compare in-hospital mortality across waves in patients without and with a ceiling of care at hospital admission.Design A multicentre prospective cohort study.Setting Five tertiary hospitals in Catalonia, Spain, during four waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from the first wave embraced from March to April 2020, second wave from October to November 2020, third wave from January to February 2021 and fourth wave from July to August 2021.Participants All consecutive adult subjects (older than 18 years old) admitted to any of the five aforementioned centres. All subjects had a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (with a positive PCR test or antigen test) and an overnight hospital stay. Ceiling of care defined as the highest level of care that a patient will receive during medical treatment was assessed at hospital admission for all patients.Primary measure In-hospital mortality.Results A total of 3982 hospitalised patients without ceiling of care and 1831 hospitalised patients with ceiling of care were included in the analysis. The adjusted ORs of in-hospital mortality in the second wave were 0.57 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.80), in the third 0.56 (95% CI 0.37 to 0.84) and in the fourth 0.34 (95% CI 0.21 to 0.56) compared with the first wave in subjects without ceiling of care. The adjusted OR was significantly lower in the fourth (0.38, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.58) wave compared with the first wave in subjects with ceiling of care.Conclusions In patients without ceiling of care, mortality decreased over time, suggesting better disease knowledge and management. In ceiling of care, only fourth wave patients were less likely to die than first wave patients. In a future infectious disease pandemic, it will be a challenge to improve the management of patients with ceiling of care.