Assessment of the effectiveness of structural and nonstructural measures to cope with global change impacts in Barcelona

Abstract

In a context of high uncertainty of hydro‐climatic variables, the development of updated methods to assess climate change impacts is as important as the provision of improved climate change data. This article presents the impacts of climate change on the flooding problems concerning a critical area of Barcelona and the assessment of the effectiveness of structural and nonstructural measures to cope with such impacts. For this purpose, a specific study tackling climate change influence on extreme precipitation in Barcelona and a detailed 1D/2D‐coupled model were used. Once the model was developed and calibrated, several scenarios of adaptation measures were considered to cope with climate change effects for the 2050 horizon. Results concerning these scenarios were compared to a defined ¿business as usual scenario¿. Climate change impacts were assessed in terms of flood hazard and risk maps concerning vehicular and pedestrian circulation for several return periods (1, 10 and 100 years) for all the considered scenarios. Additionally, direct tangible damages were estimated using depth‐damage curves. The expected annual damage of the area is obtained by combining hazard and vulnerability levels using a Geographic Information System‐based toolbox. By undertaking a cost‐benefit analysis, the effectiveness of the strategies is assessed.