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IR09-021_Claeys.pdf (170.58 KB)

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Working paper

Publication date

2009

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cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Claeys et al., 2009
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/61503

Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal

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Abstract

We estimate changes in fiscal policy regimes in Portugal with a Markov Switching regression of fiscal policy rules for the period 1978-2007, using a new dataset of fiscal quarterly series. We find evidence of a deficit bias, while repeated reversals of taxes making the budget procyclical. Economic booms have typically been used to relax tax pressure, especially during elections. One-off measures have been preferred over structural ones to contain the deficit during economic crises. The EU fiscal rules prompted temporary consolidation, but did not permanently change the budgeting process.

Subject

Política fiscal, Inversions, Crisis econòmiques, Portugal

Subject (English)

Fiscal policy, Investments, Depressions, Portugal

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Documents de treball (Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada Regional i Pública (IREA))

Citation

CLAEYS, Peter, SOUSA, Ricardo M. and AFONSO, António. Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal. IREA – Working Papers. 2009. Vol.  IR09/21. ISSN 2014-1254. [consulted: 11 of August of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/61503

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