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Working paper

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2022

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cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Gómez-González et al., 2022
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/191699

Does economic complexity reduce the probability of a fiscal crisis?

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Abstract

Higher economic complexity of a country reduces the probability of suffering a fiscal crisis between 46% and 57%. Along with institutional factors, complexity is shown to be sufficient to describe the risk of facing episodes of fiscal distress. On the contrary, the role of variables frequently emphasized by the literature and policy markets, such as the debt-output ratio, real growth, inflation, terms of trade or fiscal balance, is very modest or insignificant. Development strategies that aim for greater economic complexity also promise to reduce countries’ fiscal vulnerability

Subject

Deute, Crisis financeres, Ingressos fiscals

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Debt, Financial crises, Internal revenue

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Documents de treball (Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada Regional i Pública (IREA))

Citation

GÓMEZ-GONZÁLEZ, José E., URIBE GIL, Jorge Mario and VALENCIA, Oscar M. Does economic complexity reduce the probability of a fiscal crisis?. IREA – Working Papers. 2022. Vol.  IR22/18. [consulted: 14 of June of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/191699

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