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Si us plau utilitzeu sempre aquest identificador per citar o enllaçar aquest document: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/214527
Risk prediction of major cardiac adverse events and all-cause death following covid-19 hospitalization at one year follow-up: The HOPE-2 score
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Background: Long-term consequences of COVID-19 are still partly known. Aim of the study: To derive a clinical score for risk prediction of long-term major cardiac adverse events (MACE) and all cause death in COVID-19 hospitalized patients. Methods: 2573 consecutive patients were enrolled in a multicenter, international registry (HOPE-2) from January 2020 to April 2021 and identified as the derivation cohort. Five hundred and twenty-six patients from the CardioCovid-Italy registry were considered as external validation cohort. A long-term prognostic risk score for MACE and all cause death was derived from a multivariable regression model. Results: Out of 2573 patients enrolled in the HOPE-2 registry, 1481 (58 %) were male, with mean age of 60 +/- 16 years. At long-term follow-up, the overall rate of patients affected by MACE and/or all cause death was 7.8 %. After multivariable regression analysis, independent predictors of MACE and all cause death were identified. The HOPE-2 prognostic score was therefore calculated by giving: 1 -4 points for age class ( <65 years, 65 -74, 75 -84, >= 85), 3 points for history of cardiovascular disease, 1 point for hypertension, 3 points for increased troponin serum levels at admission and 2 points for acute renal failure during hospitalization. Score accuracy at ROC curve analysis was 0.79 (0.74 at external validation). Stratification into 3 risk groups ( <3, 3-6, >6 points) classified patients into low, intermediate and high risk. The observed MACE and all-cause death rates were 1.9 %, 9.4 % and 26.3 % for low- intermediate and high-risk patients, respectively (Log-rank test p < 0.01). Conclusions: The HOPE-2 prognostic score may be useful for long-term risk stratification in patients with previous COVID-19 hospitalization. High-risk patients may require a strict follow-up.
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SANTORO, Francesco, NÚÑEZ GIL, Iván, VIANA LLAMAS, María c., ALFONSO RODRÍGUEZ, Emilio, URIBARRI, Aitor, BECERRA MUÑOZ, Victor manuel, GUZMAN, Gisela feltes, DI NUNNO, Nicola, LOPEZ PAIS, Javier, CERRATO, Enrico, SINAGRA, Gianfranco, MAPELLI, Massimo, INCIARDI, Riccardo m., SPECCHIA, Claudia, ORIECUIA, Chiara, BRUNETTI, Natale daniele. Risk prediction of major cardiac adverse events and all-cause death following covid-19 hospitalization at one year follow-up: The HOPE-2 score. _European Journal of Internal Medicine_. 2024. Vol. 124, núm. 108-114. [consulta: 14 de gener de 2026]. ISSN: 0953-6205. [Disponible a: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/214527]