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IEB11-26_CarusoCosta.pdf (516.68 KB)

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Working paper

Publication date

2011

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cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Caruso et al., 2011
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/116572

The probability of military rule in Africa, 1970-2007

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Abstract

In this paper we empirically analyze the socio-economic determinants of the existence of military dictatorships in Africa. A recent literature in political economy analyses the relationship between the civil undemocratic government and the military as an agency problem: the civilian government needs the army to avoid internal violence, but a larger army reduces the opportunity-cost for the military to run a coup d’état and seize power. These papers derive three main causes of military rule: income inequality, ethnic fractionalization, and external threat. We empirically analyze these issues by estimating the probability that a country experiences a military rule. We consider 48 African countries over the period 1970-2007.

Subject

Govern militar, Dictadura, Àfrica

Subject (English)

Military government, Dictatorship, Africa

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IEB (Institut d’Economia de Barcelona) – Working Papers

Citation

CARUSO, Raul, COSTA, Jacopo and RICCIUTI, Roberto. The probability of military rule in Africa, 1970-2007. IEB Working Paper 2011/26. [consulted: 8 of June of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/116572

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