IEB (Institut d’Economia de Barcelona) – Working Papers

URI permanent per a aquesta col·leccióhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/111426

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Economic policy and psychological violence: The hidden costs of spain’s minimum wage reform
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Rebollo-Sanz, Yolanda F.; Rodríguez Planas, Núria
This paper examines the impact of a 22% minimum wage increase in Spain on January 2019 on intimate partner violence using a doubly robust difference-in-differences strategy with inverse probability weighting and the nationally representative Survey of Violence Against Women. We find no effect of the reform on physical or sexual violence. Furthermore, treated women—those with a high predicted probability of working at minimum-wage jobs—experienced a 42% increase in psychological violence. Labor-market analysis of survey respondents reveals that the reform led to a substitution away from female employment towards her partner’s employment, reducing women’s bargaining power within the household. For women whose partner is five years older, the increase in violence is not accompanied with lower female labor-market engagement, providing evidence of alternative mechanisms, such as disrupted gender roles, or instrumental violence. These findings highlight unintended consequences of wage policy and highlight the need for complementary policies and services addressing the dangers of gender-based and domestic violence.
Fiscal policy and politicians’ term length
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Cipullo, Davide; Franzoni, Federico; Klarin, Jonas
This paper investigates the causal effect of the term length of political executives on economic policy outcomes. To establish causality, we exploit the staggered adoption of four-year terms for governors across US states, using data for the period 1937–2008. We find that increasing governors’ tenure in office from two years to four years reduced state expenditures and revenues by approximately 0.3–0.5 percentage points of GDP. The effect on state finances is primarily driven by a reduction of current spending and grants from the federal government, and it is concentrated in states where the incumbent governor expects fierce competition in the next election. Lastly, we discuss the implications of longer terms for macroeconomic stabilization, political budget cycles, and intergovernmental resource allocation.
The sources of researcher variation in economics
(2025) Huntington-Klein, Nick; Pörtner, Claus C.
We use a rigorous three-stage many-analysts design to assess how different researcher decisions—specifically data cleaning, research design, and the interpretation of a policy question—affect the variation in estimated treatment effects. A total of 146 research teams each completed the same causal inference task three times each: first with few constraints, then using a shared research design, and finally with pre-cleaned data in addition to a specified design. We find that even when analyzing the same data, teams reach different conclusions. In the first stage, the interquartile range (IQR) of the reported policy effect was 3.1 percentage points, with substantial outliers. Surprisingly, the second stage, which restricted research design choices, exhibited slightly higher IQR (4.0 percentage points), largely attributable to imperfect adherence to the prescribed protocol. By contrast, the final stage, featuring standardized data cleaning, narrowed variation in estimated effects, achieving an IQR of 2.4 percentage points. Reported sample sizes also displayed significant convergence under more restrictive conditions, with the IQR dropping from 295,187 in the first stage to 29,144 in the second, and effectively zero by the third. Our findings underscore the critical
When policy meets weather: Extreme temperatures and workplace safety
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Bellés-Obrero, Cristina; Montresor, Giulia; Nicodemo, Catia
This paper estimates the causal effects of extreme temperatures and a related adaptation policy on workplace accidents in Spain, combining administrative records on occupational accidents with high-resolution weather data. Both cold and heat raise the incidence of work accidents, though with different magnitudes: ice days (maximum temperatures<0◦C) increase workplace accidents by 14%, while hot days (35-40◦C) raise them by 4.7%, relative to days in the 15-20◦C range. Cold disproportionately affects women, older workers, permanent employees, and indoor or commuting workers, whereas heat poses greater risks for men, temporary workers, immigrants, and outdoor labourers. To examine the role of adaptation policy, we exploit a 2015 reform of Spain’s national heat alert system, which replaced purely climate-based temperature thresholds with criteria incorporating epidemiological evidence. Difference-indifferences and event-study estimates indicate that the reform reduced workplace accidents by 6.6%, with larger effects for temporary workers (9.2%) and for temperature-related injuries (16.4%). Our findings highlight the importance of targeted climate-adaptation policies in reducing occupational risks
Intimate partner violence and income: Quasi-experimental evidence from the earned income tax credit
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Cesur, Resul; Rodríguez Planas, Núria; Roff, Jennifer; Simon, David
We estimate the impact of an exogenous increase in income on the prevalence and counts of intimate partner violence (IPV). We exploit time and family-size variation in the earned income tax credit (EITC) by comparing victimization of women with one child or more with that of women with no children before and after the 1993 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act. Expansion of the credit reduces both reports of physical or sexual assaults and counts of physical or sexual assaults per 100 women surveyed; the effects were strongest for groups more likely to experience IPV and be eligible for the EITC: unmarried women and unmarried Black women. If increased income is the only channel by which the EITC decreases IPV, an additional $1,000 of after-tax income decreases physical or sexual violence toward unmarried low-educated women by 9.73 percent.
Female empowerment and intimate partner violence
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Calabresi, Elisabetta; Rodríguez Planas, Núria
The chapter reviews the economic literature on intimate partner violence (IPV), a widespread human rights violation affecting nearly one in three women globally and generating significant societal costs. It focuses on the relationship between various dimensions of female empowerment and IPV. The chapter begins by outlining key theoretical frameworks—including household bargaining, instrumental violence, male backlash, and exposure theories—as well as the main data sources used to study IPV. It then reviews empirical evidence on how factors shaping female empowerment at the individual, relationship, community, and societal levels influence IPV outcomes. Central themes include labor market dynamics, education, income shocks, family formation, legal frameworks, institutional access, and gender norms. The chapter also considers how these factors interact across levels and discusses additional drivers of IPV not directly linked to female empowerment. The goal is to provide an overview of causal evidence from the economic literature on IPV while emphasizing its complexity and the importance of a context-specific, intersectional approach to both its analysis and prevention
Wealth tax enforcement: The role of tax and institutional design
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Durán Cabré, José María; Esteller Moré, Alejandro; Kotsogiannis, Christos; Salvadori, Luca
Enforcing wealth tax compliance among high-net-worth individuals is particularly challenging. Using administrative data on the Net Wealth Tax for Catalan taxpayers over the 2011–2020 period, this paper evaluates the impact of audits on voluntary compliance. The evidence suggests that wealth tax audits do enhance compliance, but the impact is short-lived — and driven by taxpayers rebalancing their tax evasion and avoidance responses. On the institutional side, the results indicate that Spain’s overlapping tax audit mandates can create coordination frictions that reduce the efficiency and effectiveness of audit-based enforcement of the New Wealth Tax. Effective enforcement depends not only on robust audit strategies, but also on coherent institutional design and sound tax policy.
The ability to detect and likelihood to disseminate fake headlines across four EU countries
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Montolio, Daniel; Riambau Armet, Guillem
We conduct an online survey across four countries of the European Union (Germany, Ireland, Poland, and Spain) to study how the socio-economic determinants of their citizens condition their ability to detect fake headlines and their likelihood of sharing them using social media. Additionally, we analyze the impact of attitudinal and ideological variables on the probability of detecting (and sharing) fake news. Results point to a significant role of some socio-economic and political variables in determining both the probability of detecting and sharing fake news on social media; results also show interesting country heterogeneity. Political headlines are more likely to be misclassified, which underscores the challenge of overcoming ideological biases in media consumption. We highlight the importance of fostering digital literacy, especially among young and more vulnerable individuals, to promote responsible democratic citizenship.
Fiscal drag with microsimulation: Evidence from Spanish tax records
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Balladares, Sofía; García-Miralles, Esteban
Fiscal drag arises when nominal tax parameters remain unchanged despite nominal income growth, thereby increasing effective tax rates and revenue. We use Spanish administrative tax records and a detailed microsimulation model to examine fiscal drag in personal income taxation through two complementary approaches. First, we estimate tax-to-base elasticities to assess the progressivity of the tax system and potential fiscal drag under homogeneous income growth. We uncover significant heterogeneity in elasticities across income sources, across the individual income distribution and in the underlying mechanisms. Second, we conduct counterfactual simulations to quantify the actual impact of fiscal drag from 2019 to 2023, finding it accounts for about a third of revenue growth. Our findings offer insights for public finance modelling, revenue forecasting, and tax policy design.
Understanding the link between heat and intimate partner violence
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Santonja, Adrián; Schmitz, Laura; Vall Castelló, Judit
Even though one in four women worldwide has experienced violence from an intimate partner (IPV) at least once in their lifetime, some of the factors driving it remain poorly understood. This study quantifies the impact of extreme temperatures on IPV seasonality, with a particular focus on its increase during the summer months. Using granular administrative data on IPV in Spain for the period 2006-2022, we find that extreme heat leads to a 6% rise in total IPV offences, with a stronger increase for severe cases. We explore several mechanisms, including increased time exposure to the partner and potential modifications in reporting behaviour. Importantly, we also show that the effects are stronger in areas facing substantial negative labour market shocks. Our projections indicate that a rise in average temperatures would result in 85-190 additional severe IPV offences per year, emphasizing the role of climate resilience for the successful implementation of IPV prevention strategies.
The Price of Silence
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Magagnoli, Marianna; Tassinari, Filippo
This paper studies the causal impact of street noise on housing prices. It focuses on a very dense urban environment and its entire soundscape, using granular data on listed flats and street noise. We employ a combination of hedonic price and fixed effects model, exploiting the regular grid shape of the Eixample district, in Barcelona. Our results indicate that doubling the perceived street noise generates an average depreciation of 3.4% on sales and 2% on rents. We show that the lower semi-elasticity with which the rental market adjusts for the negative externality is associated with a higher turnover of tenants in louder streets. Moreover, we collect several pieces of evidence which suggest that the effect is not driven by sorting by neighbors. Lastly, we use our results to perform two costbenefit analyses of policies which help reducing noise. Based on our findings, we formulate policy recommendations and highlight specific interventions that can mitigate the negative impact of urban noise.
Crime at your doorstep: Gender-specific effects on university student performance
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Montolio, Daniel; Taberner Llinàs, Pere Antoni
Student performance at university significantly influences individual decisions and future opportunities, especially in labour markets. This paper analyses the impact of local crime on student performance during higher education, with a focus on potential gender differences. Following students over their bachelor’s years, the identification strategy exploits granular local crime variation – violent and non-violent crimes – near students’ residences before sitting a final exam. We consider both spatial and temporal patterns of crime exposure by estimating a panel data model with student, exam and district-month fixed-effects to provide causal estimates. Our findings suggest that violent crimes have a negative impact on student performance, while non-violent have no significant effect. Notably, the results are mainly driven by high-ability female students, with suggestive evidence that male students in the bottom or middle parts of the grade distribution are also affected.
The role of the carrot and stick in tax compliance in a decentralised context
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Durán Cabré, José María; Esteller Moré, Alejandro
We analyse whether decentralisation affects tax morale through both greater trust in institutions (the carrot) and greater perceived tax enforcement (the stick), two drivers of compliance that operate via the promotion of voluntary compliance and deterrence, respectively. We take advantage of the Spanish case characterised by a general regime, which is partially decentralised, and the so-called foral regime, operated in two regions, which is fully decentralised (i.e. high tax regulatory and administrative powers). We draw on data from a unique survey that are representative both of the national level and of the foral regions. Under the foral regime, the average citizen neither presents a higher level of tax morale, nor has the perception of a higher level of enforcement. Thus, any structuring of the tax administration within a federal system cannot be based on what are presumed to be higher levels of compliance resulting from the decentralisation of the administration
Minimum wages and low wage workers: Compliance asnon-employment margin
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) González Pampillón, Nicolás; Vázquez Grenno, Javier
This paper examines the impact of a substantial minimum wage increase in Uruguay—a middle-income developing economy—on wages and employment. Using administrative data and a difference-in-differences approach, we analyze the consequences of a 2005 policy reform that raised the real minimum wage by 80% within a year. Our findings show that the reform led to significant wage gains for low-wage earners, with at most minimal negative effects on employment. Survey data further reveal no significant changes in unemployment or informality, suggesting the reform did not distort labor market dynamics. To contextualize these results, we investigate compliance with minimum wage laws and document a post-reform decline in compliance, particularly among low-wage workers. This pattern aligns with firms’ cost-benefit trade-offs under weak enforcement of wage regulations. Our study contributes to the literature by providing causal evidence on the labor market effects of minimum wage policies in a developing economy, underscoring the pivotal role of enforcement in shaping policy outcomes
Is the revealed price of democracy biased?
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Durán Cabré, José María; Esteller Moré, Alejandro; Secomandi, Riccardo
We examine how information influences the marginal willingness to pay taxes (MWTPT) through a four-wave randomized survey experiment conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, we assess the impact of quantitative (data on the actual tax-to-GDP ratio) and qualitative (basic pros and cons of taxation) information on revealed MWTPT. The results show that qualitative information increases MWTPT, particularly among high-income individuals. In contrast, quantitative information only reduces MWTPT among high-income individuals who initially underestimated the aggregate tax burden. Hence, those who are potentially more affected by taxes are also more sensitive to the provision of information. These findings suggest that information can shape perceptions of the tax system and, consequently, influence individuals' willingness to contribute to public good provision. This has important implications for tax policy design and efforts to reduce political polarization. If these efforts are not properly implemented, the revealed price of democracy will remain biased.
Jumping without parachutes. revolving doors and political incentives
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Gamalerio, Matteo; Trombetta, Federico
This paper investigates how the interplay between politics and firms influences the profil·les of political candidates and their policy decisions. Specifically, we analyze the effects of an anti-revolving door law, which impose a mandatory “cooling-off” period before former politicians can take significant positions in the bureaucracy or in state-owned enterprises. We develop a political agency model where politicians can access “politically connected outside options” (PCOs), and examine how the reduction in the expected value of these PCOs impacts candidate selection and policymaking. Our findings suggest that a decline in the value of PCOs disproportionately affects individuals with lower human capital, thereby increasing the proportion of high human capital candidates. Simultaneously, this shift heightens the likelihood that low human capital politicians will pander toward the voters, even when such policies are suboptimal. We test those predictions using data from Italian municipalities. Leveraging a population threshold that triggers the implementation of anti-revolving door policies, we employ a difference-in-discontinuity approach. Our results show that the cooling-off period raises the average education levels of candidates and elected mayors. Additionally, we find that the reform reduces the probability that low human capital mayors adopt electorally costly policies.
When developers hold office: shaping housing supply through local politics
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Ouasbaa, Ghizlen; Solé Ollé, Albert; Viladecans Marsal, Elisabet
We examine the impact of city council members with real estate backgrounds on housing supply in California 1995-2019. Using candidate occupation data and a close-elections regression discontinuity design, we find that electing a developer increases approved housing units by 68% during their term. This effect fades after one term, suggesting developers influence zoning decisions more than long-term policy change. Analysis of votes extracted from council meetings shows they are especially effective in securing discretionary zoning approvals. Importantly, we find no evidence of electoral backlash, suggesting voters are generally supportive of housing expansion led by pro-development candidates.
The value of public health
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2024) Adserà, Alícia; Arenas Jal, Andreu; Boix Serra, Carles
We estimate the value of a public health system exploiting a conjoint experiment in nationally representative surveys in Brazil, France and the United States in which respondents choose between different societies that randomly vary in their economic outcomes (country income, income inequality, social mobility), political outcomes (public healthcare, democracy), and the level of personal income for each respondent. This allows us to estimate the respondents’ willingness to trade off publicly provided healthcare for individual income as well as other societal attributes. We find that, on average, individuals have a strong preference for a public health system. They would need a large increase, equal to two times the average income of the country in France, and equal to 50% of the average income of the country in Brazil and the US. Most respondents support public healthcare and they do it with more intensity than its opponents. Demand for state-provided healthcare is largely driven by other-regarding preferences. Respondents that think that poverty is the outcome of luck or lack of connections, and those who lean to the political left and believe the world is zero-sum are more likely to support a public health system. Demographic traits seem uncorrelated with support for a public health system – with the exception of household wealth, which is associated with lower levels of support in France and the US.
The electoral effects of banning cars from the streets: Evidence from Barcelona’s superblocks
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Estruch-Garcia, Cèlia; Solé Ollé, Albert; Tassinari, Filippo; Viladecans Marsal, Elisabet
This paper explores the electoral effects of Barcelona’s Superblocks pedestrianization policy, a green initiative designed to reduce car traffic and enhance urban environments. Using census tract-level data from the 2023 local elections, we assess the policy’s impact on support for the incumbent mayor. Our findings reveal a positive and statistically significant increase in votes in areas directly affected by the policy, with benefits also extending to neighboring districts. Importantly, there is no evidence that the intervention led to traffic displacement, which suggests that such disruptions did not provoke electoral backlash. Further analysis indicates that the policy’s effects are not driven by concerns over gentrification or mobility disruptions. Instead, the effects are stronger in more educated neighborhoods, pointing to the role of environmental attitudes in shaping political support. These results contribute to the literature on the political economy of green policies, underscoring the importance of localized impacts in shaping electoral outcomes and sustaining públic support for urban climate initiatives.
Motherhood and Domestic Violence: A Longitudinal Study of Using Population-Wide Administrative Data
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2024) Bergvall, Sanna; Rodríguez Planas, Núria
Most empirical studies indicate that becoming a mother is an augmenting factor for the perpetration of intimate partner violence (IPV). Using rich population-wide hospital records data from Sweden, we conduct a stacked DiD analysis comparing the paths of women two years before and after the birth of their first child with same-age women who are several quarters older when giving birth to their first child and find that, in contrast to the consensus view, violence sharply decreases with pregnancy and motherhood. This decline has both a short-term and longer-term component, with the temporary decline in IPV covering most of the pregnancy until the child is 6 months old, mimicking a temporary decrease in hospital visits for alcohol abuse by the children’s fathers. The more persistent decline is driven by women who leave the relationship after the birth of the child. Our evidence is not supportive of alternative mechanisms including suspicious hospitalizations, an overall reduction in hospital visits or selection in seeking medical care, mothers’ added value as the main nurturer, or mothers’ drop in relative earnings within the household. Our findings suggest the need to push for public health awareness campaigns underscoring the risk of victimization associated with substance abuse and to also provide women with more support to identify and leave a violent relationship.

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