IEB (Institut d’Economia de Barcelona) – Working Papers

URI permanent per a aquesta col·leccióhttps://diposit.ub.edu/handle/2445/111426

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The ability to detect and likelihood to disseminate fake headlines across four EU countries
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Montolio, Daniel; Riambau Armet, Guillem
We conduct an online survey across four countries of the European Union (Germany, Ireland, Poland, and Spain) to study how the socio-economic determinants of their citizens condition their ability to detect fake headlines and their likelihood of sharing them using social media. Additionally, we analyze the impact of attitudinal and ideological variables on the probability of detecting (and sharing) fake news. Results point to a significant role of some socio-economic and political variables in determining both the probability of detecting and sharing fake news on social media; results also show interesting country heterogeneity. Political headlines are more likely to be misclassified, which underscores the challenge of overcoming ideological biases in media consumption. We highlight the importance of fostering digital literacy, especially among young and more vulnerable individuals, to promote responsible democratic citizenship.
The Price of Silence
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Magagnoli, Marianna; Tassinari, Filippo
This paper studies the causal impact of street noise on housing prices. It focuses on a very dense urban environment and its entire soundscape, using granular data on listed flats and street noise. We employ a combination of hedonic price and fixed effects model, exploiting the regular grid shape of the Eixample district, in Barcelona. Our results indicate that doubling the perceived street noise generates an average depreciation of 3.4% on sales and 2% on rents. We show that the lower semi-elasticity with which the rental market adjusts for the negative externality is associated with a higher turnover of tenants in louder streets. Moreover, we collect several pieces of evidence which suggest that the effect is not driven by sorting by neighbors. Lastly, we use our results to perform two costbenefit analyses of policies which help reducing noise. Based on our findings, we formulate policy recommendations and highlight specific interventions that can mitigate the negative impact of urban noise.
Understanding the link between heat and intimate partner violence
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Santonja, Adrián; Schmitz, Laura; Vall Castelló, Judit
Even though one in four women worldwide has experienced violence from an intimate partner (IPV) at least once in their lifetime, some of the factors driving it remain poorly understood. This study quantifies the impact of extreme temperatures on IPV seasonality, with a particular focus on its increase during the summer months. Using granular administrative data on IPV in Spain for the period 2006-2022, we find that extreme heat leads to a 6% rise in total IPV offences, with a stronger increase for severe cases. We explore several mechanisms, including increased time exposure to the partner and potential modifications in reporting behaviour. Importantly, we also show that the effects are stronger in areas facing substantial negative labour market shocks. Our projections indicate that a rise in average temperatures would result in 85-190 additional severe IPV offences per year, emphasizing the role of climate resilience for the successful implementation of IPV prevention strategies.
Fiscal drag with microsimulation: Evidence from Spanish tax records
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Balladares, Sofía; García-Miralles, Esteban
Fiscal drag arises when nominal tax parameters remain unchanged despite nominal income growth, thereby increasing effective tax rates and revenue. We use Spanish administrative tax records and a detailed microsimulation model to examine fiscal drag in personal income taxation through two complementary approaches. First, we estimate tax-to-base elasticities to assess the progressivity of the tax system and potential fiscal drag under homogeneous income growth. We uncover significant heterogeneity in elasticities across income sources, across the individual income distribution and in the underlying mechanisms. Second, we conduct counterfactual simulations to quantify the actual impact of fiscal drag from 2019 to 2023, finding it accounts for about a third of revenue growth. Our findings offer insights for public finance modelling, revenue forecasting, and tax policy design.
Crime at your doorstep: Gender-specific effects on university student performance
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Montolio, Daniel; Taberner Llinàs, Pere Antoni
Student performance at university significantly influences individual decisions and future opportunities, especially in labour markets. This paper analyses the impact of local crime on student performance during higher education, with a focus on potential gender differences. Following students over their bachelor’s years, the identification strategy exploits granular local crime variation – violent and non-violent crimes – near students’ residences before sitting a final exam. We consider both spatial and temporal patterns of crime exposure by estimating a panel data model with student, exam and district-month fixed-effects to provide causal estimates. Our findings suggest that violent crimes have a negative impact on student performance, while non-violent have no significant effect. Notably, the results are mainly driven by high-ability female students, with suggestive evidence that male students in the bottom or middle parts of the grade distribution are also affected.
Minimum wages and low wage workers: Compliance asnon-employment margin
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) González Pampillón, Nicolás; Vázquez Grenno, Javier
This paper examines the impact of a substantial minimum wage increase in Uruguay—a middle-income developing economy—on wages and employment. Using administrative data and a difference-in-differences approach, we analyze the consequences of a 2005 policy reform that raised the real minimum wage by 80% within a year. Our findings show that the reform led to significant wage gains for low-wage earners, with at most minimal negative effects on employment. Survey data further reveal no significant changes in unemployment or informality, suggesting the reform did not distort labor market dynamics. To contextualize these results, we investigate compliance with minimum wage laws and document a post-reform decline in compliance, particularly among low-wage workers. This pattern aligns with firms’ cost-benefit trade-offs under weak enforcement of wage regulations. Our study contributes to the literature by providing causal evidence on the labor market effects of minimum wage policies in a developing economy, underscoring the pivotal role of enforcement in shaping policy outcomes
When developers hold office: shaping housing supply through local politics
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Ouasbaa, Ghizlen; Solé Ollé, Albert; Viladecans Marsal, Elisabet
We examine the impact of city council members with real estate backgrounds on housing supply in California 1995-2019. Using candidate occupation data and a close-elections regression discontinuity design, we find that electing a developer increases approved housing units by 68% during their term. This effect fades after one term, suggesting developers influence zoning decisions more than long-term policy change. Analysis of votes extracted from council meetings shows they are especially effective in securing discretionary zoning approvals. Importantly, we find no evidence of electoral backlash, suggesting voters are generally supportive of housing expansion led by pro-development candidates.
Is the revealed price of democracy biased?
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Durán Cabré, José María; Esteller Moré, Alejandro; Secomandi, Riccardo
We examine how information influences the marginal willingness to pay taxes (MWTPT) through a four-wave randomized survey experiment conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, we assess the impact of quantitative (data on the actual tax-to-GDP ratio) and qualitative (basic pros and cons of taxation) information on revealed MWTPT. The results show that qualitative information increases MWTPT, particularly among high-income individuals. In contrast, quantitative information only reduces MWTPT among high-income individuals who initially underestimated the aggregate tax burden. Hence, those who are potentially more affected by taxes are also more sensitive to the provision of information. These findings suggest that information can shape perceptions of the tax system and, consequently, influence individuals' willingness to contribute to public good provision. This has important implications for tax policy design and efforts to reduce political polarization. If these efforts are not properly implemented, the revealed price of democracy will remain biased.
Jumping without parachutes. revolving doors and political incentives
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Gamalerio, Matteo; Trombetta, Federico
This paper investigates how the interplay between politics and firms influences the profil·les of political candidates and their policy decisions. Specifically, we analyze the effects of an anti-revolving door law, which impose a mandatory “cooling-off” period before former politicians can take significant positions in the bureaucracy or in state-owned enterprises. We develop a political agency model where politicians can access “politically connected outside options” (PCOs), and examine how the reduction in the expected value of these PCOs impacts candidate selection and policymaking. Our findings suggest that a decline in the value of PCOs disproportionately affects individuals with lower human capital, thereby increasing the proportion of high human capital candidates. Simultaneously, this shift heightens the likelihood that low human capital politicians will pander toward the voters, even when such policies are suboptimal. We test those predictions using data from Italian municipalities. Leveraging a population threshold that triggers the implementation of anti-revolving door policies, we employ a difference-in-discontinuity approach. Our results show that the cooling-off period raises the average education levels of candidates and elected mayors. Additionally, we find that the reform reduces the probability that low human capital mayors adopt electorally costly policies.
The role of the carrot and stick in tax compliance in a decentralised context
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Durán Cabré, José María; Esteller Moré, Alejandro
We analyse whether decentralisation affects tax morale through both greater trust in institutions (the carrot) and greater perceived tax enforcement (the stick), two drivers of compliance that operate via the promotion of voluntary compliance and deterrence, respectively. We take advantage of the Spanish case characterised by a general regime, which is partially decentralised, and the so-called foral regime, operated in two regions, which is fully decentralised (i.e. high tax regulatory and administrative powers). We draw on data from a unique survey that are representative both of the national level and of the foral regions. Under the foral regime, the average citizen neither presents a higher level of tax morale, nor has the perception of a higher level of enforcement. Thus, any structuring of the tax administration within a federal system cannot be based on what are presumed to be higher levels of compliance resulting from the decentralisation of the administration
The electoral effects of banning cars from the streets: Evidence from Barcelona’s superblocks
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2025) Estruch-Garcia, Cèlia; Solé Ollé, Albert; Tassinari, Filippo; Viladecans Marsal, Elisabet
This paper explores the electoral effects of Barcelona’s Superblocks pedestrianization policy, a green initiative designed to reduce car traffic and enhance urban environments. Using census tract-level data from the 2023 local elections, we assess the policy’s impact on support for the incumbent mayor. Our findings reveal a positive and statistically significant increase in votes in areas directly affected by the policy, with benefits also extending to neighboring districts. Importantly, there is no evidence that the intervention led to traffic displacement, which suggests that such disruptions did not provoke electoral backlash. Further analysis indicates that the policy’s effects are not driven by concerns over gentrification or mobility disruptions. Instead, the effects are stronger in more educated neighborhoods, pointing to the role of environmental attitudes in shaping political support. These results contribute to the literature on the political economy of green policies, underscoring the importance of localized impacts in shaping electoral outcomes and sustaining públic support for urban climate initiatives.
The value of public health
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2024) Adserà, Alícia; Arenas Jal, Andreu; Boix Serra, Carles
We estimate the value of a public health system exploiting a conjoint experiment in nationally representative surveys in Brazil, France and the United States in which respondents choose between different societies that randomly vary in their economic outcomes (country income, income inequality, social mobility), political outcomes (public healthcare, democracy), and the level of personal income for each respondent. This allows us to estimate the respondents’ willingness to trade off publicly provided healthcare for individual income as well as other societal attributes. We find that, on average, individuals have a strong preference for a public health system. They would need a large increase, equal to two times the average income of the country in France, and equal to 50% of the average income of the country in Brazil and the US. Most respondents support public healthcare and they do it with more intensity than its opponents. Demand for state-provided healthcare is largely driven by other-regarding preferences. Respondents that think that poverty is the outcome of luck or lack of connections, and those who lean to the political left and believe the world is zero-sum are more likely to support a public health system. Demographic traits seem uncorrelated with support for a public health system – with the exception of household wealth, which is associated with lower levels of support in France and the US.
Motherhood and Domestic Violence: A Longitudinal Study of Using Population-Wide Administrative Data
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2024) Bergvall, Sanna; Rodríguez Planas, Núria
Most empirical studies indicate that becoming a mother is an augmenting factor for the perpetration of intimate partner violence (IPV). Using rich population-wide hospital records data from Sweden, we conduct a stacked DiD analysis comparing the paths of women two years before and after the birth of their first child with same-age women who are several quarters older when giving birth to their first child and find that, in contrast to the consensus view, violence sharply decreases with pregnancy and motherhood. This decline has both a short-term and longer-term component, with the temporary decline in IPV covering most of the pregnancy until the child is 6 months old, mimicking a temporary decrease in hospital visits for alcohol abuse by the children’s fathers. The more persistent decline is driven by women who leave the relationship after the birth of the child. Our evidence is not supportive of alternative mechanisms including suspicious hospitalizations, an overall reduction in hospital visits or selection in seeking medical care, mothers’ added value as the main nurturer, or mothers’ drop in relative earnings within the household. Our findings suggest the need to push for public health awareness campaigns underscoring the risk of victimization associated with substance abuse and to also provide women with more support to identify and leave a violent relationship.
Social pensions and intimate partner violence against older women
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2024) Bellés-Obrero, Cristina; La Mattina, Giulia; Ye, Han
The prevalence and determinants of intimate partner violence (IPV) among older women are understudied. This paper documents that the incidence of IPV remains high at old ages and provides the first evidence of the impact of access to income on IPV for older women. We leverage a Mexican reform that lowered the eligibility age for a noncontributory pension and a difference-in-differences approach. Women’s eligibility for the pension increases their probability of being subjected to economic, psychological, and physical IPV. The estimated effects are found only among women in the short term and are more pronounced for women who experienced family violence in childhood and those from poorer households. Looking at potential mechanisms, we find suggestive evidence that men use violence as a tool to control women’s resources. Additionally, women reduce paid employment after becoming eligible for the pension, which may result in more time spent at home and greater exposure to violent partners. In contrast, we show that IPV does not increase when men become eligible for the non-contributory pension.
Highway traffic in britain: The effect of road capacity changes
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2024) García López, Miquel-Àngel; Gómez-Hernández, Luz Yadira; Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa
This paper provides a theoretical framework to study the relationship between expanded road capacity, traffic volumes and increased economic activity. We build on Anas (2024) to show that increased traffic volumes do not necessarily lead to congestion if adjustments in econòmic factors, such as population or employment, are not substantial. We test our predictions obtaining key estimates with data from Great Britain between 2001 and 2020, and adopting a shift-share instrumental variable approach. We find that the elasticity of vehicle kilometers traveled to road capacity improvements is positive and statistically different from 1 across different specifications, while the elasticity of population and employment is positive but smaller than 1. In our framework this implies that the cost of driving does not increase above
A country of waiters: The economic consequences of tourism specialization
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2024) Ouasbaa, Ghizlen
This paper examines the lasting impact of tourism specialization on per capita income in Spanish municipalities, aiming to understand the factors driving these effects. We employ two distinct approaches. The first one focuses on tourism development since the initial boom in the 1960s and relies on cross-sectional variation in tourism exposure related to amenities like beaches and weather for identification. The second method looks at a later wave of tourism development in the 1990s, using a shiftshare analysis that combines the share of residents from tourist-source countries in each municipality with the growth rate of tourists from these countries throughout Spain. The findings indicate that municipalities with the highest growth in tourism specialization now exhibit lower per capita income. A municipality experiencing an increase in tourism per capita over time equal to the sample median has a per capita income between 21% and 22% lower as of 2019, depending on the approach used. This decline in income is associated with an increase in temporary job contracts, with a decrease in industrial employment, and with lower levels of educational attainment.
Gender, perceived discrimination and the overruling of Roe v. Wade
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2024) Rodríguez Planas, Núria; Secor, Alan
Have the recent changes in reproductive rights changed women’s perceptions of discrimination and fair treatment relative to men’s perceptions? To address this question, we collected online survey data (N=1,374) during spring 2023 using a randomized design that provided information about the enactment of State antiabortion laws and the overturning of Roe v. Wade by the U.S. Supreme Court to a treatment group but no information to an untreated control group. This exogenous variation in information dissemination was used to analyze perceived fairness and discrimination of treated individuals, by sex. We find that treatment increases women’s overall perception of discrimination and unfair treatment in the US by 11.5 percent of a standard deviation and their perception relative to men by 21.8 percent of a standard deviation, widening an already existing gender gap. These results support the notion that the recent state and federal abortion restrictions can impact individuals’ perceptions of fairness and discrimination in the U.S. and do so differentially by gender.
Do public works programs foster climate resilience? Conceptual framework and review of empirical evidence
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2024) Aurino, Elisabetta; Burchi, Francesco; Sakketa, Tekalign; Terskaya, Anastasia
Public works programs (PWPs) are among the most used social protection instruments in low- and middle-income countries. While their impacts on poverty, food security and labor outcomes have been increasingly examined, there is a notable lack of systematic theoretical and empirical research focusing on their effects on climate resilience. To fill this gap, we began by developing a conceptual framework that links the different components of PWPs—wages, infrastructure, and skills development—to household capacity to cope with, and adapt to, weather shocks. After that, we used this framework to guide the review of empirical evidence on the multiple short- and long-term effects of PWPs on resilience to weather shocks, such as flood, drought, and cyclones (...)
Startup stations: The impact of rail access on entrepreneurship (self-employment) in England and Wales
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2024) Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa; Szumilo, Nikodem; Vernet, Antoine
We study the impact of improved rail access on entrepreneurship rates in England and Wales. We use data from the Census spanning 2001, 2011, and 2021 to analyse self-employment rates in granular geographic areas of around 200 residents. Specifically, we study how they respond to changes in the distance to the nearest train station occurring due to 56 new station openings. We find that all else equal, moving 1 km further away from a station reduces self-employment rates by 0.12 percentage points, with the effect dissipating beyond 7 km. Secondary results suggest that access to rail makes it easier to become self-employed while not making it more attractive compared to employment. Our findings suggest that rail infrastructure improvements can support local entrepreneurship and economic activity, contributing to regional development and reducing economic inequality.
The political economy of coastal development
(Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, 2024) Magontier, Pierre; Solé Ollé, Albert; Viladecans Marsal, Elisabet
Coastal development has advantages, such as job creation, and drawbacks, such as the loss of environmental amenities, for both residents and nonresidents. Local governments may prioritize their constituents' interests, resulting in suboptimal coastal development. We investigate how political alignment among neighboring mayors facilitates intergovernmental cooperation in the development of coastal areas. We leverage causal effects by applying a close-elections Regression Discontinuity Design to the universe of buildings in Spain. Municipalities with partyaligned mayors develop 46% less land than politically isolated ones, and politically homogeneous coastal areas develop less than fragmented ones. The effect is more salient for land closest to shore or previously occupied by forests, in municipalities with a large share of protected land, and for relevant environmental markers, such as air and bathing water pollution. These results underscore the importance of cooperative political endeavors in managing development spillovers, with environmental considerations assuming a central role.

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