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Si us plau utilitzeu sempre aquest identificador per citar o enllaçar aquest document: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/218139
Climate-related default probabilities
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Climate risk refers to the risks associated with climate change and has already started to impact various sectors of the economy. In this work, we focus on the impact of physical risk on the probability of default for a firm in the agribusiness sector. The probability of default is estimated based on the Merton model, where the firm defaults when its asset value falls below the threshold defined by its liabilities. We study the relationship between the stock value of the firm and global surface temperature anomalies, observing that an increase in temperature negatively affects the stock value and, consequently, the asset value of the firm. A decrease in the asset value of the firm translates into an increase in its probability of default. We also propose a model to assess the exposure of the firm to transition risk.
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BLANC-BLOCQUEL, Augusto, ORTIZ GRACIA, Luis and SANFELICI, Simona. Climate-related default probabilities. Risks. 2024. Vol. 12, num. 11, pags. 181. ISSN 2227-9091. [consulted: 6 of August of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/218139