Investment specific technology shocks and emerging market business cycle dynamics

Abstract

This article explores the role played by investment-specific technology (IST) shocks in emerging market business cycle fluctuations. The analysis is motivated by two key empirical facts; the presence of IST change in the post-war US economy combined with the importance of US investment goods in the emerging market imports. The goal is to quantify the contribution of US IST change for the business cycles of an emerging country in the context of a two-country, two-sector international real business cycle framework with investment and consumption goods sectors. Specifically, I estimate the model using Mexican and US data and find that a permanent US-originating IST shock is important in explaining Mexican business cycle dynamics. Shocks to investment sector technology explain around 60% of the investment, 44% of the consumption and 52% of the output variability. I argue that both a shock that captures financial frictions and a permanent US-originating IST shock are necessary to account for the key business cycle features in the data.