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Article

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Accepted version

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2017-02

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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/107663

A gravity model of migration between ENC and EU

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https://doi.org/10.1111/tesg.12195

Abstract

Due to its ageing population and low birth rates, the European Union (EU) will need to import foreign labour in the next decades. In this context, the EU neighbouring countries (ENC) are the main countries of origin and transit of legal and irregular migration towards Europe. Their economic, cultural, and historical links also make them an important potential source of labour. The objective of this paper is to analyse past and future trends in ENC-EU bilateral migration relationships. With this aim, we specify and estimate a gravity model for nearly 200 countries between 1960 and 2010. Next, we use the model to obtain medium-run migration forecasts. Our results show a clear increase in migratory pressures from ENC to the EU in the near future, but probably lower than initially expected.

Subject

Envelliment de la població, Política d'ocupació, Mobilitat laboral, Política d'emigració i immigració, Països de la Unió Europea

Subject (English)

Population aging, Manpower policy, Labor mobility, Emigration and immigration policy, European Union countries

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Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)
Publicacions de projectes de recerca finançats per la UE

Citation

RAMOS LOBO, Raúl and SURIÑACH CARALT, Jordi. A gravity model of migration between ENC and EU. Tijdschrift Voor Economische en Sociale Geografie. 2017. Vol. 108, num. 1, pags. 21-35. ISSN 0040-747X. [consulted: 18 of August of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/107663

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