Prognostic Value of the Acute-to-Chronic Glycemic Ratio at Admission in Heart Failure: A Prospective Study

Abstract

Acute hyperglycemia has been associated with worse prognosis in patients hospitalized for heart failure (HF). Nevertheless, studies evaluating the impact of glycemic control on long-term prognosis have shown conflicting results. Our aim was to assess the relationship between acute-to-chronic (A/C) glycemic ratio and 4-year mortality in a cohort of subjects hospitalized for acute HF. A total of 1062 subjects were consecutively included. We measured glycaemia at admission and estimated average chronic glucose levels and the A/C glycemic ratio were calculated. Subjects were stratified into groups according to the A/C glycemic ratio tertiles. The primary endpoint was 4-year mortality. Subjects with diabetes had higher risk for mortality compared to those without (HR 1.35 [95% CI: 1.10-1.65]; p = 0.004). A U-shape curve association was found between glucose at admission and mortality, with a HR of 1.60 [95% CI: 1.22-2.11]; p = 0.001, and a HR of 1.29 [95% CI: 0.97-1.70]; p = 0.078 for the first and the third tertile, respectively, in subjects with diabetes. Additionally, the A/C glycemic ratio was negatively associated with mortality (HR 0.76 [95% CI: 0.58-0.99]; p = 0.046 and HR 0.68 [95% CI: 0.52-0.89]; p = 0.005 for the second and third tertile, respectively). In multivariable analysis, the A/C glycemic ratio remained an independent predictor. In conclusion, in subjects hospitalized for acute HF, the A/C glycemic ratio is significantly associated with mortality, improving the ability to predict mortality compared with glucose levels at admission or average chronic glucose concentrations, especially in subjects with diabetes.