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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/121329
A geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty by a metric of disagreement among qualitative expectations
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In this study we present a geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty. We design a positional indicator of disagreement among survey-based agents' expectations about the state of the economy. Previous dispersion-based uncertainty indicators derived from business and consumer surveys exclusively make use of the two extreme pieces of information coming from the respondents expecting a variable to rise and to fall. With the aim of also incorporating the information coming from the share of respondents expecting a variable to remain constant, we propose a geometrical framework and use a barycentric coordinate system to generate a measure of disagreement, referred to as a discrepancy indicator. ...
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CLAVERÍA GONZÁLEZ, Óscar, MONTE MORENO, Enric and TORRA PORRAS, Salvador. A geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty by a metric of disagreement among qualitative expectations. IREA – Working Papers. 2018. Vol. IR18/06. ISSN 1136-8365. [consulted: 6 of June of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/121329