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2015

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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/66855

Common trends in international tourism demand: Are they useful to forecast tourism predictions?

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Abstract

This study evaluates whether modelling the existing commont trends in tourism arrivals from all visitor markets to a specific destination can improve tourism predictions. While most tourism forecasting research focuses on univariate methods, we compare the performance of three different Artificial Neural Networks in a multivariate setting that takes into account the correlations in the evolution of inbound international tourism demand to Catalonia (Spain). We find that the multivariate multiple-output approach does not outperform the forecasting performance of the networks when applied country by country, but it significantly outperforms the forecasting performance for total tourist arrivals.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2015.07.013

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Previsió econòmica, Turisme, Desenvolupament econòmic, Xarxes neuronals (Informàtica)

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Economic forecasting, Tourism, Economic development, Neural networks (Computer science)

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Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)

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CLAVERÍA GONZÁLEZ, Óscar, MONTE MORENO, Enric and TORRA PORRAS, Salvador. Common trends in international tourism demand: Are they useful to forecast tourism predictions?. Tourism Management Perspectives . 2015. Vol. 16, num. 116-122. ISSN 2211-9736. [consulted: 7 of October of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/66855

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