Carregant...
Tipus de document
Document de treballData de publicació
Llicència de publicació
Si us plau utilitzeu sempre aquest identificador per citar o enllaçar aquest document: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/217020
Taking the Pulse of Fiscal Distress: Inflation, Depreciation, and Crises
Títol de la revista
Director/Tutor
ISSN de la revista
Títol del volum
Recurs relacionat
Resum
This study offers novel monthly estimates of the latent probability of fiscal crises for 163 countries, from January 1970 to December 2023. These indicators are constructed with minimal data requirements on prices and exchange rates and serve as a global early warning system for fiscal risk. The probabilities are estimated using a Random Forest model within a Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) framework, trained on manually compiled fiscal crisis events. Using these indicators, we test nine hypotheses on the effects of country characteristics, time periods, and policy choices on the probability of fiscal crises. Countries with inflation-targeting regimes, on average, experience lower fiscal distress. Fiscal rules reduce the probability of crises while higher debt levels increase their likelihood. Our findings are particularly relevant for developing countries, where fiscal risk is higher than in advanced economies, even after controlling for policy choices and country-specific characteristics.
Matèries
Matèries (anglès)
Citació
Citació
URIBE GIL, Jorge mario, VALENCIA, Oscar m.. Taking the Pulse of Fiscal Distress: Inflation, Depreciation, and Crises. _IREA – Working Papers_. 2024. Vol. IR24/16X. [consulta: 30 de gener de 2026]. [Disponible a: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/217020]