Assessing heterogeneous time-varying impacts in the debt-growth nexus

Abstract

We empirically identify, measure, and describe the heterogeneity of the debt-growth nexus and the underlying factors that may explain it using panel data for 115 countries from 1995 to 2016. First, countries are endogenously grouped using the grouped fixed effects (GFE) estimator. The GFE estimator endogenously splits the sample into five groups of countries with a distinct estimated effect of public debt-to-GDP ratio on economic growth and allows us to investigate group-specific time-varying impacts. Then, we use a panel data analysis to explore the potential drivers affecting these heterogeneous links’ time-varying magnitude. Our results suggest that the negative impact of public debt on economic growth is moderated by the quality of a country’s institutions and the proportion of productive expenditure but intensified by indebtedness and the maturity of the debt.