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IR13-017_Ramos-Surinach.pdf (688.67 KB)

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Working paper

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2013

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cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Ramos Lobo et al., 2013
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/57827

A gravity model of migration between ENC and EU [WP]

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Abstract

Due to ageing population and low birth rates, the European Union (EU) will need to import foreign labour in the next decades. In this context, the EU neighbouring countries (ENC) are the main countries of origin and transit of legal and illegal migration towards Europe. Their economic, cultural and historical links also make them an important potential source of labour force. The objective of this paper is to analyse past and future trends in ENC-EU bilateral migration relationships. With this aim, two different empirical analyses are carried out. First, we specify and estimate a gravity model for nearly 200 countries between 1960 and 2010; and, second, we focus on within EU-27 migration flows before and after the enlargement of the EU. Our results show a clear increase in migratory pressures from ENC to the EU in the near future, but South-South migration will also become more relevant.

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Envelliment de la població, Política d'ocupació, Mobilitat laboral, Política d'emigració i immigració, Països de la Unió Europea

Subject (English)

Population aging, Manpower policy, Occupational mobility, Emigration and immigration policy, European Union countries

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Documents de treball (Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada Regional i Pública (IREA))
AQR (Grup d’Anàlisi Quantitativa Regional) – Working Papers
Documents de treball / Informes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)

Citation

RAMOS LOBO, Raúl and SURIÑACH CARALT, Jordi. A gravity model of migration between ENC and EU [WP]. IREA – Working Papers. 2013. Vol.  IR13/17. ISSN 2014-1254. [consulted: 10 of August of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/57827

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