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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/201108
Predictive model to identify multiple failure to biological therapy in patients with rheumatoid arthritis
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Despite advances in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and the wide range of therapies available, there is a percentage of patients whose treatment presents a challenge for clinicians due to lack of response to multiple biologic and target-specific disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (b/tsDMARDs).To develop and validate an algorithm to predict multiple failure to biological therapy in patients with RA.Observational retrospective study involving subjects from a cohort of patients with RA receiving b/tsDMARDs.Based on the number of prior failures to b/tsDMARDs, patients were classified as either multi-refractory (MR) or non-refractory (NR). Patient characteristics were considered in the statistical analysis to design the predictive model, selecting those variables with a predictive capability. A decision algorithm known as 'classification and regression tree' (CART) was developed to create a prediction model of multi-drug resistance. Performance of the prediction algorithm was evaluated in an external independent cohort using area under the curve (AUC).A total of 136 patients were included: 51 MR and 85 NR. The CART model was able to predict multiple failures to b/tsDMARDs using disease activity score-28 (DAS-28) values at 6 months after the start time of the initial b/tsDMARD, as well as DAS-28 improvement in the first 6 months and baseline DAS-28. The CART model showed a capability to correctly classify 94.1% NR and 87.5% MR patients with a sensitivity = 0.88, a specificity = 0.94, and an AUC = 0.89 (95% CI: 0.74-1.00). In the external validation cohort, 35 MR and 47 NR patients were included. The AUC value for the CART model in this cohort was 0.82 (95% CI: 0.73-0.9).Our model correctly classified NR and MR patients based on simple measurements available in routine clinical practice, which provides the possibility to characterize and individualize patient treatments during early stages.© The Author(s), 2022.
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NOVELLA NAVARRO, Marta, et al. Predictive model to identify multiple failure to biological therapy in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Therapeutic Advances In Musculoskeletal Disease. 2022. Vol. 14. ISSN 1759-7218. [consulted: 12 of June of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/201108