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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/175437
Estimating the real burden of disease under a pandemic situation: The SARS-CoV2 case
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The present paper introduces a new model used to study and analyse the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) epidemic-reported-data from Spain. This is a Hidden Markov Model whose hidden layer is a regeneration process with Poisson immigration, Po-INAR(1), together with a mechanism that allows the estimation of the under-reporting in non-stationary count time series. A novelty of the model is that the expectation of the unobserved process's innovations is a time-dependent function defined in such a way that information about the spread of an epidemic, as modelled through a Susceptible-Infectious-Removed dynamical system, is incorporated into the model. In addition, the parameter controlling the intensity of the under-reporting is also made to vary with time to adjust to possible seasonality or trend in the data. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate the parameters of the model.
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FERNÁNDEZ FONTELO, Amanda, et al. Estimating the real burden of disease under a pandemic situation: The SARS-CoV2 case. PLoS One. 2020. Vol. 15, num. 12, pags. e0242956. ISSN 1932-6203. [consulted: 9 of June of 2026]. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2445/175437